Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Capricorn Metals Ltd A$14.40, price A$14.81, upside -2.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.75 – A$17.72 · fair‑value band A$8.47 – A$24.27 · the A$14.81 price screens above the A$14.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments.
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Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments. The company holds 100% interest in the Karlawinda gold project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia; and the Mt Gibson Gold Project located in the Murchison region of Western Australia. It also operates commercial properties. The company was formerly known as Malagasy Minerals Limited and changed its name to Capricorn Metals Limited in February 2016. Capricorn Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) currently trades at A$14.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$14.40, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$26.58 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$14.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.10, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$8.47 (bear) to A$24.27 (bull), the price of A$14.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Capricorn Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$769M in FY2026 versus A$287M in FY2022, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$282M in FY2026, compounding +33.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.8B (≈ $4.8B) · P/E ratio 23.5 · P/S ratio 8.62 · EPS (TTM) A$0.6300 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 36.7% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −3%, CMM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$8.47Fair Value A$14.40Bull A$24.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1446 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+487.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +123.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+62.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7,740% → 59%
2026 sits 168% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+34.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.6% a year for the price and +31.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−2.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)39.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)56.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$14.40 versus a price of A$14.81, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CMM?
Our model-based fair value for Capricorn Metals Ltd is A$14.40 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$14.81.
What is the quality score of CMM?
Capricorn Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$14.40 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$8.47, optimistic scenario A$24.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capricorn Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$14.40, about −3% upside versus a price of A$14.81 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$8.47, optimistic scenario A$24.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Capricorn Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$711M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Capricorn Metals Ltd pay a dividend?
Capricorn Metals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Capricorn Metals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +487.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMM use?
Our models discount Capricorn Metals Ltd at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Capricorn Metals Ltd that is +13.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Capricorn Metals Ltd grew +487.4 % a year. The price currently implies +13.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Capricorn Metals Ltd (+13.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.91 %: that much free cash flow Capricorn Metals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capricorn Metals Ltd it is A$14.40 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$14.81. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capricorn Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CMM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$14.81, fair value A$14.40, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$14.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$14.40). For Capricorn Metals Ltd the two are A$0.4110 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capricorn Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Capricorn Metals Ltd at about A$6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$14.81; our models calculate a fair value of A$14.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMM?
Our models span a range for Capricorn Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$8.47, base A$14.40, optimistic A$24.27 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$14.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMM?
Capricorn Metals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$14.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 9.5, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capricorn Metals Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 25.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMM from its 52-week high?
Capricorn Metals Ltd trades at A$14.81, about 16% below its 52-week high of A$17.72 and 58% above the low of A$9.38 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$14.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capricorn Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capricorn Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$14.81, calculated fair value A$14.40 (−3%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMM calculated?
We run Capricorn Metals Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$14.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Capricorn Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$14.81. Our model-based fair value is A$14.40, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capricorn Metals Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$8.47 to A$24.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Capricorn Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The market capitalisation of Capricorn Metals Ltd is A$6.8B (≈ $4.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 8.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Earnings per share at Capricorn Metals Ltd are A$0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The dividend yield of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 0.3% (payout 7.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The net margin of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 36.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 23.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
The operating margin of Capricorn Metals Ltd is 56.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Revenue at Capricorn Metals Ltd is growing +26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM)?
Earnings per share at Capricorn Metals Ltd are growing +36.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Capricorn Metals Ltd (CMM) hold?
Capricorn Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$485M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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