Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Cementos Argos SA $13.38, price $18.36, upside -27.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.86 – $23.44 · fair‑value band $10.24 – $16.51 · the $18.36 price screens above the $13.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Cementos Argos S.A. produces and markets cement, concrete, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, and hydrated lime products in Colombia, the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States. The company also engages in the reinsurance and transport businesses. In addition, it exports its products.
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Cementos Argos S.A. produces and markets cement, concrete, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, and hydrated lime products in Colombia, the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States. The company also engages in the reinsurance and transport businesses. In addition, it exports its products. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Barranquilla, Colombia. Cementos Argos S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Grupo Argos S.A.
Stock analysis
Cementos Argos SA ADR (CMTOY) currently trades at $18.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.38, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $44.99 per share, and 8 of the 22 models we run sit above the $18.36 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.85, and 14 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.24 (bear) to $16.51 (bull), the price of $18.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Cementos Argos SA ADR reported revenue of 4.8T COP in FY2025 versus 9.8T COP in FY2021, a compound −16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3T COP in FY2025, compounding +52.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B · P/E ratio 32.8 · P/S ratio 15.9 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 48.6% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −27%, CMTOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.24Fair Value $13.38Bull $16.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4142 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.7% (2020) → 12.6% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in COP, Colombia: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 5.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.52× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cementos Argos SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.38 versus a price of $18.36, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMTOY?
Our model-based fair value for Cementos Argos SA ADR is $13.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.36.
What is the quality score of CMTOY?
Cementos Argos SA ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $16.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cementos Argos SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.38, about −27% upside versus a price of $18.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $16.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Cementos Argos SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8T COP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cementos Argos SA ADR pay a dividend?
Cementos Argos SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cementos Argos SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMTOY use?
Our models discount Cementos Argos SA ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cementos Argos SA ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cementos Argos SA ADR grew -11.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cementos Argos SA ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.18 %: that much free cash flow Cementos Argos SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cementos Argos SA ADR it is $13.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.36. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cementos Argos SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMTOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.36, fair value $13.38, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMTOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.38). For Cementos Argos SA ADR the two are $4.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cementos Argos SA ADR worth?
The market values Cementos Argos SA ADR at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.36; our models calculate a fair value of $13.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMTOY?
Our models span a range for Cementos Argos SA ADR: cautious scenario $10.24, base $13.38, optimistic $16.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMTOY?
Cementos Argos SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cementos Argos SA ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMTOY from its 52-week high?
Cementos Argos SA ADR trades at $18.36, about 22% below its 52-week high of $23.44 and 56% above the low of $11.74 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cementos Argos SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cementos Argos SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.36, calculated fair value $13.38 (−27%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMTOY calculated?
We run Cementos Argos SA ADR through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cementos Argos SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $18.36. Our model-based fair value is $13.38, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cementos Argos SA ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA ADR grew +25.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +18.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cementos Argos SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The market capitalisation of Cementos Argos SA ADR is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cementos Argos SA ADR is 15.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA ADR are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The dividend yield of Cementos Argos SA ADR is 5.5% (payout 179%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The net margin of Cementos Argos SA ADR is 48.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cementos Argos SA ADR is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cementos Argos SA ADR is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Revenue at Cementos Argos SA ADR is growing −0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA ADR are growing −95.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) hold?
Cementos Argos SA ADR holds more cash than debt, 674B COP net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026