Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cementos Argos SA stock $14.40, price $16.73, that is 13.9% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.85 – $19.91 · fair‑value band $10.44 – $21.09 · the $16.73 price screens above the $14.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Cementos Argos S.A. produces and markets cement, concrete, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, and hydrated lime products in Colombia, the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States. The company also engages in the reinsurance and transport businesses. In addition, it exports its products.
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The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Barranquilla, Colombia. Cementos Argos S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Grupo Argos S.A.
Stock analysis
Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) currently trades at $16.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.40, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $46.60 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $16.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.80, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.44 (bear) to $21.09 (bull), the price of $16.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Cementos Argos SA ADR reported revenue of 4.8T COP in FY2025 versus 9.8T COP in FY2021, a compound −16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3T COP in FY2025, compounding +52.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B Mid · P/E ratio 34.9 · P/S ratio 16.9 · EPS (TTM) $0.4800 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 48.6% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −14%, CMTOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.44Fair Value $14.40Bull$21.09
Price $16.73 · Downside -13.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4142 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.7% (2020) → 12.6% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in COP, Colombia: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 5.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High margins provide some pricing evidence, yet the commoditized sector and earnings-to-cash-flow mismatch leave overall durability uncertain.
Main risk: The earnings-to-cash-flow mismatch points to possible accrual concerns that could undermine reported margins and operational cash generation.
Cementos Argos is channeling more than five million dollars this year into modernizing its Colombian cement, concrete and aggregates operations, including AI solutions under the Mine to Market program. These steps target better reliability, lower costs and higher productivity in its main market. Our models still see the business as overvalued. Will the efficiency gains from technology deliver enough extra returns to close that gap, or will they mainly help the company hold its ground against rivals?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 265 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−13.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Return on assets13.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)34.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.52× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)30.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cementos Argos SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.40 versus a price of $16.73, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMTOY?
Our model-based fair value for Cementos Argos SA is $14.40 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.73.
What is the quality score of CMTOY?
Cementos Argos SA has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.40 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.44, optimistic scenario $21.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cementos Argos SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.40, about 14% lower versus a price of $16.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.44, optimistic scenario $21.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Cementos Argos SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8T COP (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Cementos Argos SA ADR pay a dividend?
Cementos Argos SA currently shows a dividend yield of 5.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cementos Argos SA has a dividend yield of 5.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 51.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.37 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cementos Argos SA would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.8 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMTOY use?
Our models discount Cementos Argos SA at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cementos Argos SA that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cementos Argos SA grew -11.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cementos Argos SA (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.58 %: that much free cash flow Cementos Argos SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cementos Argos SA it is $14.40 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $16.73. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cementos Argos SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, CMTOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.73, fair value $14.40, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMTOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.40). For Cementos Argos SA the two are $2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cementos Argos SA ADR worth?
The market values Cementos Argos SA at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $16.73; our models calculate a fair value of $14.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMTOY?
Our models span a range for Cementos Argos SA: cautious scenario $10.44, base $14.40, optimistic $21.09 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $16.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMTOY?
Cementos Argos SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.9 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cementos Argos SA (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMTOY from its 52-week high?
Cementos Argos SA trades at $16.73, about 16% below its 52-week high of $19.91 and 43% above the low of $11.74 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cementos Argos SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Vulcan Materials Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cementos Argos SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $16.73, calculated fair value $14.40 (−14%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMTOY calculated?
We run Cementos Argos SA through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Cementos Argos SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $16.73. Our model-based fair value is $14.40, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cementos Argos SA ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.44 to $21.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA grew +25.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +18.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cementos Argos SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The market capitalisation of Cementos Argos SA is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cementos Argos SA is 16.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA are $0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The dividend yield of Cementos Argos SA is 5.5% (payout 190%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The net margin of Cementos Argos SA is 48.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cementos Argos SA is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cementos Argos SA is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Revenue at Cementos Argos SA is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY)?
Earnings per share at Cementos Argos SA are growing −54.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cementos Argos SA (CMTOY) hold?
Cementos Argos SA holds more cash than debt, 674B COP net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 10, 2026