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Cengage Learning Holdings (CNGO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.5B

CL Cengage Learning Holdings logo Cengage Learning Holdings CNGO · US
Price$23.50
Fair Value$19.58
Upside-16.7%
Quality43/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -2.2% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: Medium Range $15.12 – $19.58 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$23.50 $9.75 Fair Value $19.58 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.75 – $23.50 · fair‑value band $15.12 – $19.58 · the $23.50 price screens above the $19.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Cengage Learning Holdings (CNGO) currently trades at $23.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.58, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cengage Learning Holdings generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of -2.2%. Revenue grew 6.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $15.12 (bear case) to $19.58 (bull case); at $23.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -17%, CNGO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Rev-Margin DCF $1.40 $11.09 74
ROIC Compounder $4.07 $8.34 $12.40 72
EPV $4.07 $7.51 $10.39 59
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit $1.13 $12.38 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.07 $35.14 $64.35 41
10Y Revenue Exit $1.68 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.25 $15.27 $29.52 37
Earnings-Based
EPV $4.07 $7.51 $10.39 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT $26.20 $42.00 $57.81 53
EV/EBITDA $40.86 $61.55 $82.25 54
EV/Revenue $7.02 $15.50 43
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF $1.40 $11.09 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $4.07 $8.34 $12.40 72

Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.00) versus Growth DCF ($1.40). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.8%
Net margin -2.2%
Return on equity -344%
Free cash flow $78.3M FY2025
Operating margin 16.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-1.83
EPS growth (YoY) +32.3%
Net debt $1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cengage Learning Holdings II, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an education technology company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Cengage Academic, Cengage Work, and Cengage Select.

Full company description

Cengage Learning Holdings II, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an education technology company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Cengage Academic, Cengage Work, and Cengage Select. It offers eTextbooks, a digital version of the textbook; print textbooks and materials; and Cengage Unlimited, a subscription service for digital higher education materials. The company also provides courseware solutions, including MindTap for business and economics, social sciences, trades, and skills; WebAssign for mathematics and physics; Skills Assessment Manager for introductory computing; Cengage NOW for accounting; and Online Web-Based Learning for chemistry. In addition, it offers ed2go, an online learning platform; K-12, public, and academic libraries under the Gale brand, as well as licenses its content for integration within web-based information services; English language curriculum and digital solutions under the NGL brand; educational resources for career-focused beauty and wellness education providers; and literacy materials to K-6 students under the Nelson brand. Further, the company operates Infosec, a cybersecurity education platform comprising Bootcamps, which provides instructor-led, digital course experiences geared for cybersecurity certifications or skill sets; Infosec Skills that offers hands-on training for reskilling and upskilling in the cybersecurity profession; and Infosec IQ, which offers security awareness training for non-technical learners to recognize, avoid, and report cyber-attacks and security incidents. It sells and distributes its products through e-commerce channels, through channel partners, and college bookstores. The company serves higher education, workforce skills, secondary education, English language teaching, and research markets. Cengage Learning Holdings II, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Mason, Ohio.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cengage Learning Holdings reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2019, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$114M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 21/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.5B
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y)
+0.7%
Revenue +0.4%/yr
FY19 $1.4B
FY22 $1.4B
FY23 $1.4B
FY24 $1.5B
FY25 $1.5B
Net income
FY19 −$97.0M
FY22 −$44.6M
FY23 −$40.2M
FY24 −$80.9M
FY25 −$114M

CNGO screens 17% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cengage Learning Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNGO

Peer Group

Education & Training Services · 148 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.98× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 18.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 11 · sector 37
FUTURE 34 · sector 24
PAST 0 · sector 18
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 66

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN 966.48 MXN 897.37 MXN -7%
TAL Education Group TAL $10.24 $15.60 +52%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $36.45 $41.45 +14%
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹131.59 ₹14.81 -89%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $149.00 $152.01 +2%
Covista Inc CVSA $116.22 $135.45 +17%
Stride, Inc LRN $83.39 $139.45 +67%
Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI $40.33 $21.35 -47%
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $31.66 $41.45 +31%
Strategic Education, Inc STRA $84.18 $105.48 +25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cengage Learning Holdings (CNGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.58 versus a price of $23.50, about −17% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNGO?
Our model-based fair value for Cengage Learning Holdings is $19.58 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $23.50.
What is the quality score of CNGO?
Cengage Learning Holdings has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cengage Learning Holdings (CNGO)?
Cengage Learning Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CNGO?
The net profit margin of Cengage Learning Holdings is about -2.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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