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Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Central Petroleum Limited $0.08, price $0.04, upside +100.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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CP
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited
CNPTF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.0800 · Strongly undervalued (+100.0%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 35/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0009 – $0.4450 · fair‑value band $0.0600 – $0.1000 · the $0.0400 price screens below the $0.0800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia.
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Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia. The company holds interests in various oil and gas properties comprising 159,362 square kilometers of exploration area located in the Amadeus, Wiso, and Georgina Basins in the Northern Territory. Central Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) currently trades at $0.0400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.1300 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.0400 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.0600 (bear) to $0.1000 (bull), the price of $0.0400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Central Petroleum Limited reported revenue of A$43.6M in FY2025 versus A$59.8M in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.7M in FY2025, compounding +135.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $33.8M · P/S ratio 0.72 · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −1.2% · Revenue (TTM) A$46.9M · Revenue growth (YoY) +17.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 100%, CNPTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0600
Fair Value $0.0800
Bull $0.1000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.1000
$0.1700
$0.3100
77
Growth DCF
$0.0900
$0.1600
$0.2700
76
Owner Earnings
$0.0800
$0.1500
$0.2600
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.1000
$0.1700
$0.3100
77
Owner Earnings
$0.0800
$0.1500
$0.2600
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.0600
$0.0900
$0.1300
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0800
$0.1300
$0.1900
74
5Y P/E Exit
$0.0800
$0.1400
$0.2100
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.0700
$0.1000
$0.1500
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0800
$0.1300
$0.2100
67
10Y P/E Exit
$0.0900
$0.1400
$0.2200
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0500
$0.2400
$0.3400
63
Lynch FV
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1200
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1200
57
EPV
$0.0800
$0.1000
$0.1100
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.0800
$0.1000
$0.1300
63
P/S Multiple
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
58
P/B Multiple
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.0900
55
EV/EBIT
$0.0800
$0.1000
$0.1300
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1100
67
EV/Revenue
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0700
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.0900
$0.1600
$0.2700
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.0600
$0.0900
$0.1300
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.0400
$0.0600
$0.1000
68
ROIC Compounder
$0.0900
$0.1200
$0.1600
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.0800
$0.1200
$0.1500
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 24%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.2% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0800 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0400, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CNPTF?
Our model-based fair value for Central Petroleum Limited is $0.0800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.0400.
What is the quality score of CNPTF?
Central Petroleum Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0600, optimistic scenario $0.1000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Petroleum Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0800, about +100% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0600, optimistic scenario $0.1000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
Central Petroleum Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$46.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Central Petroleum Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNPTF use?
Our models discount Central Petroleum Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Central Petroleum Limited that is -12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Central Petroleum Limited grew -7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Central Petroleum Limited (-12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.52 %: that much free cash flow Central Petroleum Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Petroleum Limited it is $0.0800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0400. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Central Petroleum Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CNPTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0400, fair value $0.0800, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNPTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0800). For Central Petroleum Limited the two are $0.0400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Petroleum Limited worth?
The market values Central Petroleum Limited at about $33.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0400; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNPTF?
Our models span a range for Central Petroleum Limited: cautious scenario $0.0600, base $0.0800, optimistic $0.1000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CNPTF from its 52-week high?
Central Petroleum Limited trades at $0.0400, about 11% below its 52-week high of $0.0450 and 100% above the low of $0.0200 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Petroleum Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Petroleum Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0400, calculated fair value $0.0800 (+100%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNPTF calculated?
We run Central Petroleum Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Central Petroleum Limited currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.0400. Our model-based fair value is $0.0800, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Central Petroleum Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Central Petroleum Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The market capitalisation of Central Petroleum Limited is $33.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Petroleum Limited is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The net margin of Central Petroleum Limited is 17.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Petroleum Limited is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Petroleum Limited is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
The operating margin of Central Petroleum Limited is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
Revenue at Central Petroleum Limited is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF)?
Earnings per share at Central Petroleum Limited are growing −89.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Central Petroleum Limited (CNPTF) hold?
Central Petroleum Limited holds more cash than debt, A$1.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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