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Convatec Group (CNVVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Convatec Group $2.03, price $2.91, upside -30.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Convatec Group
CNVVF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $2.03 · Overvalued (−30.2%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 54/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.25 – $3.61 · fair‑value band $1.30 – $2.86 · the $2.91 price screens above the $2.03 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Convatec Group PLC engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of medical products, services and technologies for the management of chronic conditions in Europe, North America, and internationally.
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Convatec Group PLC engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of medical products, services and technologies for the management of chronic conditions in Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers advanced wound care products for the management of acute and chronic wounds resulting from various conditions, such as diabetes, and acute conditions resulting from traumatic injury and burns. It also provides ostomy care solutions, including devices, accessories, and services for people with a stoma resulting from colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, inflammatory bowel disease, and trauma. In addition, the company offers continence care products and services for people with urinary continence issues related to spinal cord injuries, neurological disease, prostate enlargement or other causes. Further, it provides infusion care solutions comprising disposable infusion sets for diabetes insulin pumps, or for use in continuous infusion treatments for conditions such as Parkinson's disease. The company sells its products to pharmacies, hospitals, and other acute and post-acute healthcare service providers directly or through distributors and wholesalers. It serves a range of customers, including healthcare providers, patients, and manufacturers. Convatec Group PLC was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Convatec Group (CNVVF) currently trades at $2.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.03, 30.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.26 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the $2.91 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5200, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.30 (bear) to $2.86 (bull), the price of $2.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Convatec Group reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $179M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.9B · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −30%, CNVVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.30
Fair Value $2.03
Bull $2.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0136 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.45
$2.38
$3.67
79
Growth DCF
$1.50
$2.35
$3.47
78
Residual Income
$0.7100
$0.8100
$1.00
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.45
$2.38
$3.67
79
Owner Earnings
$1.07
$1.83
$2.89
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.26
$2.24
$3.46
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.02
$3.62
$5.41
74
5Y P/E Exit
$0.9500
$1.68
$2.42
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.26
$2.14
$3.24
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.78
$3.05
$4.65
67
10Y P/E Exit
$1.12
$1.77
$2.49
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.6200
$1.56
$2.03
65
PEG = 1.0
$0.2900
$0.4100
$0.5300
57
EPV
$1.00
$1.26
$1.49
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.6400
$1.17
$1.86
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.6400
$0.9600
$1.29
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.51
$2.01
$2.52
63
P/S Multiple
$1.17
$1.56
$1.95
58
P/B Multiple
$1.17
$1.56
$1.95
55
EV/EBIT
$2.04
$2.94
$3.85
65
EV/EBITDA
$2.79
$3.94
$5.10
67
EV/Revenue
$1.26
$2.09
$2.92
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3900
$0.5200
$0.7800
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.50
$2.35
$3.47
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.26
$2.26
$3.36
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7100
$0.8100
$1.00
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.03
$1.41
$1.85
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.16
$1.66
$2.16
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 23.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.0%
CNVVF screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Convatec Expands Cure™ Portfolio With Launch of Cure Aqua™, Bringing Greater Choice to People Who Catheterize
- Ostomy Dressing Market Forecasts Growth from $3.80B (2026) to $4.73B by 2031, Profiling Coloplast, ConvaTec, Hollister, B. Braun & Salts
- Convatec Group (LSE:CTEC) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analysts Draw Mixed Targets
- Convatec and Lilly Foundation Commit $5m to Partners In Health to Improve Care for Non‑communicable Disease and Chronic Conditions
Compare Convatec Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 191 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $406.63 | $348.72 | −14% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme EL | €144.60 | €159.06 | +10% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $178.07 | $104.73 | −41% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $34.70 | $29.06 | −16% |
| Alcon Inc ALC | $63.94 | $40.13 | −37% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $375.65 | $137.81 | −63% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €208.20 | €54.82 | −74% |
| Straumann Holding STMN | CHF 89.80 | CHF 45.50 | −49% |
| Sartorius Aktiengesellschaft SRT | €206.50 | €42.05 | −80% |
| Solventum Corporation SOLV | $89.50 | $134.36 | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Convatec Group (CNVVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.03 versus a price of $2.91, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNVVF?
Our model-based fair value for Convatec Group is $2.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.91.
What is the quality score of CNVVF?
Convatec Group has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.30, optimistic scenario $2.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Convatec Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.03, about −30% upside versus a price of $2.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.30, optimistic scenario $2.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Convatec Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Convatec Group pay a dividend?
Convatec Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Convatec Group would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNVVF use?
Our models discount Convatec Group at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Convatec Group that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Convatec Group (CNVVF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Convatec Group grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Convatec Group (CNVVF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Convatec Group (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.78 %: that much free cash flow Convatec Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Convatec Group it is $2.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.91. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Convatec Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CNVVF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.91, fair value $2.03, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNVVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.03). For Convatec Group the two are $0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Convatec Group worth?
The market values Convatec Group at about $5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.91; our models calculate a fair value of $2.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNVVF?
Our models span a range for Convatec Group: cautious scenario $1.30, base $2.03, optimistic $2.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNVVF?
Convatec Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 3.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of CNVVF?
The PEG ratio of Convatec Group is 0.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Convatec Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNVVF from its 52-week high?
Convatec Group trades at $2.91, about 14% below its 52-week high of $3.40 and 27% above the low of $2.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Convatec Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Becton, Dickinson and Company, Medline Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Convatec Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.91, calculated fair value $2.03 (−30%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNVVF calculated?
We run Convatec Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Convatec Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.91. Our model-based fair value is $2.03, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Convatec Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.30 to $2.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Convatec Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The market capitalisation of Convatec Group is $5.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Convatec Group is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Earnings per share at Convatec Group are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The dividend yield of Convatec Group is 2.5% (payout 80.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The net margin of Convatec Group is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Convatec Group is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Convatec Group is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
The operating margin of Convatec Group is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Revenue at Convatec Group is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Convatec Group (CNVVF)?
Earnings per share at Convatec Group are growing −36.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Convatec Group (CNVVF) carry?
The net debt of Convatec Group is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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