Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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CECompanhia Energética do Ceará - CoelceCOCE3 · SA
PriceR$28.80
Fair ValueR$67.90
Upside+135.8%
Quality36/100
Below-average quality, trading 58% below our fair value of R$67.90.
As of Sep 11, 2026, the fair value of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is R$67.90 per share against a price of R$28.80, so the fair value sits 136% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Moderate moat 52/100
!Weak on dividend: 19 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange R$44.27 to R$82.21
Fair value as of: Sep 11, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$44.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range (R$44.27 to R$82.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$23.59 – R$75.96 · fair‑value band R$44.27 – R$82.21 · the R$28.80 price screens below the R$67.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 11, 2026.
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) currently trades at R$28.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$67.90, implying the stock looks roughly 57.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$82.17 per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$28.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$42.40, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce generated revenue of R$9.6B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at R$5.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 11, 2026
Scenario range: R$44.27 (bear) to R$82.21 (bull), the price of R$28.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 136%, COCE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.51 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidenceR$50.51R$52.78R$56.1475
EPVR$82.62R$102.87R$120.3372
ROIC CompounderR$90.19R$133.44R$192.0169
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR$31.04R$131.94R$180.1661
Lynch FVR$33.65R$48.07R$62.4958
PEG = 1.0R$33.65R$48.07R$62.4955
EPVR$82.62R$102.87R$120.3372
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMR$2.84R$5.66R$8.5664
DDM Multi-StageR$2.84R$4.89R$5.9765
Multiples
P/E MultipleR$61.63R$82.17R$102.7161
P/S MultipleR$58.20R$77.61R$97.0156
P/B MultipleR$58.20R$77.61R$97.0153
EV/EBITR$130.70R$189.47R$248.2464
EV/EBITDAR$121.12R$176.69R$232.2765
EV/RevenueR$97.01R$158.13R$219.2551
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R$31.64R$42.40R$63.2852
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidenceR$50.51R$52.78R$56.1475
ROIC CompounderR$90.19R$133.44R$192.0169
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER$52.08R$74.40R$96.7266
Widest divergence: Multiples (R$82.17) versus Dividend Discount (R$4.89). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio9.3as of Jun 8, 2026
P/S ratio0.40P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)R$3.60price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3
Dividend yield1.0%payout 7.8%
Net margin4.3%FY2025
Return on equity9.4%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)9.4%avg 5y
Operating margin21.6%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)R$9.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+21.9%3y avg −12.3%
EPS growth (YoY)+285%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−R$230MFY2025
Net debtR$5.9BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality36/100
Of which business quality 35
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Profitability29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance24
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Companhia Energética do Ceará " COELCE distributes electricity in Brazil. It operates in 184 municipalities in the state of Ceará in Brazil. Companhia Energética do Ceará is headquartered in Fortaleza, Brazil. Companhia Energética do Ceará - COELCE is a subsidiary of Enel Brazil S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce reported revenue of R$9.2B in FY2025 versus R$8.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$394M in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$9.2B
Latest YoY
+21.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−2.6%
Dividend yield1.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −2.6% vs 10Y −0.2%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.5% (2020) → 14.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop69% (2014) · in BRL
Revenue+3.1%/yr
FY21R$8.1B
FY22R$13.6B
FY23R$8.6B
FY24R$7.5B
FY25R$9.2B
Net income−5.2%/yr
FY21R$489M
FY22R$641M
FY23R$315M
FY24R$465M
FY25R$394M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+1.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share+8.4 %
of which total revenue +8.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %
EBIT margin+2.0 %
Tax rate−0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−8.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 3
FUTURE100· sector 32
PAST37· sector 39
HEALTH62· sector 53
DIVIDEND19· sector 64
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$67.90 versus a price of R$28.80, about +136% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COCE3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is R$67.90 (as of Sep 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$28.80.
What is the quality score of COCE3?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$67.90 (as of Sep 11, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$44.27, optimistic scenario R$82.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$67.90, about +136% upside versus a price of R$28.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$44.27, optimistic scenario R$82.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$9.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of COCE3?
The net profit margin of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is about 5.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce pay a dividend?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce it is R$67.90 per share (as of Sep 11, 2026), against a price of R$28.80. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 11, 2026, COCE3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$28.80, fair value R$67.90, a gap of about +136% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COCE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$28.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$67.90). For Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce the two are R$39.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce worth?
The market values Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce at about R$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 11, 2026). Per share that is R$28.80; our models calculate a fair value of R$67.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COCE3?
Our models span a range for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce: cautious scenario R$44.27, base R$67.90, optimistic R$82.21 per share (as of Sep 11, 2026, price R$28.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COCE3?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Sep 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$67.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
What is the PEG ratio of COCE3?
The PEG ratio of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 1.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (as of Sep 11, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COCE3 from its 52-week high?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce trades at R$28.80, about 41% below its 52-week high of R$48.80 and 12% above the low of R$25.80 (as of Sep 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$67.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, National Grid plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 11, 2026: price R$28.80, calculated fair value R$67.90 (+136%), Quality Score 36/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COCE3 calculated?
We run Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$67.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce currently trades 136 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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