Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock BRL 74.40, price BRL 34.10, upside +118.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$23.59 – R$75.65 · fair‑value band R$52.08 – R$96.72 · the R$34.10 price screens below the R$74.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Companhia Energética do Ceará " COELCE distributes electricity in Brazil. It operates in 184 municipalities in the state of Ceará in Brazil. Companhia Energética do Ceará is headquartered in Fortaleza, Brazil. Companhia Energética do Ceará - COELCE is a subsidiary of Enel Brazil S.A.
Stock analysis
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) currently trades at R$34.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$74.40, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$82.17 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$34.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$26.71, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$52.08 (bear) to R$96.72 (bull), the price of R$34.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce reported revenue of R$9.2B in FY2025 versus R$8.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$394M in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$2.9B (≈ $589M) Small · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) R$2.37 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 118%, COCE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$52.08Fair Value R$74.40BullR$96.72
Price R$34.10 · Upside +118.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.6% vs −0.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 15%
Compare Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+118.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.75× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COCE3
Frequently asked questions
Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$74.40 versus a price of R$34.10, about +118% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COCE3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is R$74.40 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$34.10.
What is the quality score of COCE3?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$74.40 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$52.08, optimistic scenario R$96.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$74.40, about +118% upside versus a price of R$34.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$52.08, optimistic scenario R$96.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$9.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce pay a dividend?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce currently shows a dividend yield of 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce it is R$74.40 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of R$34.10. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, COCE3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$34.10, fair value R$74.40, a gap of about +118% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COCE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$34.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$74.40). For Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce the two are R$40.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce worth?
The market values Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce at about R$2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is R$34.10; our models calculate a fair value of R$74.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COCE3?
Our models span a range for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce: cautious scenario R$52.08, base R$74.40, optimistic R$96.72 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price R$34.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COCE3?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$74.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
What is the PEG ratio of COCE3?
The PEG ratio of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 1.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COCE3 from its 52-week high?
Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce trades at R$34.10, about 30% below its 52-week high of R$48.80 and 21% above the low of R$28.21 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$74.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price R$34.10, calculated fair value R$74.40 (+118%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COCE3 calculated?
We run Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$74.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was R$34.10. Our model-based fair value is R$74.40, about +118% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$52.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (R$52.08 to R$96.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) come from?
Earnings per share at Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce grew +1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce
How large is the market capitalisation of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The market capitalisation of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is R$2.9B (≈ $589M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Earnings per share at Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce are R$2.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The dividend yield of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 1.1% (payout 15.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The net margin of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
The operating margin of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3)?
Revenue at Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) generate?
The free cash flow of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is −R$230M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce (COCE3) carry?
The net debt of Companhia Energética do Ceará - Coelce is R$5.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 20, 2026