COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what COG Financial Services Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7987 – A$2.36 · fair‑value band A$1.91 – A$5.57 · the A$1.87 price screens below the A$3.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia. The company operates through Finance Broking & Aggregation; Novated Leasing; and Asset Management & Lending segments.
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COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia. The company operates through Finance Broking & Aggregation; Novated Leasing; and Asset Management & Lending segments. It provides management of investment funds, as well as offers financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets; and salary packaging services to government and private sector customers. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Operations Group Limited and changed its name to COG Financial Services Limited in November 2020. COG Financial Services Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) currently trades at A$1.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.38, implying the stock looks roughly 44.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$4.78 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$1.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4800, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.91 (bear) to A$5.57 (bull), the price of A$1.87 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
COG Financial Services Ltd reported revenue of A$368M in FY2025 versus A$268M in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$18.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$372M (≈ $265M) · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1000 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 81%, COG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.91Fair Value A$3.38Bull A$5.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0350 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs −10%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare COG Financial Services Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Is COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.38 versus a price of A$1.87, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COG?
Our model-based fair value for COG Financial Services Ltd is A$3.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.87.
What is the quality score of COG?
COG Financial Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.91, optimistic scenario A$5.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the COG Financial Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.38, about +81% upside versus a price of A$1.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.91, optimistic scenario A$5.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
COG Financial Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$383M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does COG Financial Services Ltd pay a dividend?
COG Financial Services Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, COG Financial Services Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COG use?
Our models discount COG Financial Services Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For COG Financial Services Ltd that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at COG Financial Services Ltd grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into COG Financial Services Ltd (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.71 %: that much free cash flow COG Financial Services Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COG Financial Services Ltd it is A$3.38 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$1.87. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is COG Financial Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, COG trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.87, fair value A$3.38, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.38). For COG Financial Services Ltd the two are A$1.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is COG Financial Services Ltd worth?
The market values COG Financial Services Ltd at about A$372M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$1.87; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COG?
Our models span a range for COG Financial Services Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.91, base A$3.38, optimistic A$5.57 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$1.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COG?
COG Financial Services Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Balance-sheet figures for COG Financial Services Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COG from its 52-week high?
COG Financial Services Ltd trades at A$1.87, about 22% below its 52-week high of A$2.40 and 64% above the low of A$1.14 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to COG Financial Services Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is COG Financial Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$1.87, calculated fair value A$3.38 (+81%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COG calculated?
We run COG Financial Services Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. COG Financial Services Ltd currently trades 81 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was A$1.87. Our model-based fair value is A$3.38, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with COG Financial Services Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (A$1.91 to A$5.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) come from?
Earnings per share at COG Financial Services Ltd grew −13.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.3 %, EBIT margin −15.9 %, tax rate −6.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of COG Financial Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The market capitalisation of COG Financial Services Ltd is A$372M (≈ $265M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of COG Financial Services Ltd is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Earnings per share at COG Financial Services Ltd are A$0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The dividend yield of COG Financial Services Ltd is 3.5% (payout 65.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The net margin of COG Financial Services Ltd is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of COG Financial Services Ltd is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COG Financial Services Ltd is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
The operating margin of COG Financial Services Ltd is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Revenue at COG Financial Services Ltd is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at COG Financial Services Ltd (COG)?
Earnings per share at COG Financial Services Ltd are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does COG Financial Services Ltd (COG) carry?
The net debt of COG Financial Services Ltd is A$227M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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