COG Financial Services Limited (COG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$309M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7987 – A$2.36 · fair‑value band A$0.7500 – A$1.25 · the A$1.40 price screens above the A$1.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
COG Financial Services Limited (COG) currently trades at A$1.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.00, implying the stock looks roughly 28.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, COG Financial Services Limited generated revenue of A$383M at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. Net debt stands at A$227M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.7500 (bear case) to A$1.25 (bull case); at A$1.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -29%, COG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$4.78) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia. The company operates through Finance Broking & Aggregation; Novated Leasing; and Asset Management & Lending segments.
Full company description
COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia. The company operates through Finance Broking & Aggregation; Novated Leasing; and Asset Management & Lending segments. It provides management of investment funds, as well as offers financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets; and salary packaging services to government and private sector customers. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Operations Group Limited and changed its name to COG Financial Services Limited in November 2020. COG Financial Services Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
COG Financial Services Limited reported revenue of A$368M in FY2025 versus A$268M in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$18.8M in FY2025.
COG screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 424 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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