Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Comet Ridge Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.08, upside -59.0%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0800 – A$0.2450 · fair‑value band A$0.0257 – A$0.0471 · the A$0.0800 price screens above the A$0.0328 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Comet Ridge Limited engages in the oil and gas exploration, appraisal, and development activities in Australia. The company's flagship property is the Mahalo Gas Hub which consists of 2 reserves and 2 contingent resources of 676 petajoules located in southern Bowen Basin. Comet Ridge Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) currently trades at A$0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0328, implying the stock looks roughly 143.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0257 (bear) to A$0.0471 (bull), the price of A$0.0800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Comet Ridge Ltd reported revenue of A$2.8M in FY2025 versus A$20.0K in FY2021, a compound +243.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$160M (≈ $112M) · Net margin −88.6% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin −258% · Revenue (TTM) −A$2.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) −85.3% · Free cash flow −A$20.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −59%, COI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0257Fair Value A$0.0328Bull A$0.0471
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,323.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +196.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−868.4% (2019) → −1,721.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−89% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−85% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.40× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 74
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0328 versus a price of A$0.0800, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COI?
Our model-based fair value for Comet Ridge Ltd is A$0.0328 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0800.
What is the quality score of COI?
Comet Ridge Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0328 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0257, optimistic scenario A$0.0471. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Comet Ridge Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0328, about −59% upside versus a price of A$0.0800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0257, optimistic scenario A$0.0471. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Comet Ridge Ltd it is A$0.0328 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Comet Ridge Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, COI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0800, fair value A$0.0328, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0328). For Comet Ridge Ltd the two are A$0.0472 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Comet Ridge Ltd worth?
The market values Comet Ridge Ltd at about A$160M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0328 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COI?
Our models span a range for Comet Ridge Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0257, base A$0.0328, optimistic A$0.0471 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Comet Ridge Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COI from its 52-week high?
Comet Ridge Ltd trades at A$0.0800, about 54% below its 52-week high of A$0.1750 and at the low of A$0.0800 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0328 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Comet Ridge Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Comet Ridge Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0800, calculated fair value A$0.0328 (−59%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COI calculated?
We run Comet Ridge Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0328, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Comet Ridge Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0328, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Comet Ridge Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0471). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0257 to A$0.0471) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Comet Ridge Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
The market capitalisation of Comet Ridge Ltd is A$160M (≈ $112M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
The net margin of Comet Ridge Ltd is −88.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Comet Ridge Ltd is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Comet Ridge Ltd is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
The operating margin of Comet Ridge Ltd is −258% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) generate?
Comet Ridge Ltd generates revenue of −A$2.2M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Comet Ridge Ltd (COI)?
Revenue at Comet Ridge Ltd is growing −85.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +675%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) generate?
The free cash flow of Comet Ridge Ltd is −A$20.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Comet Ridge Ltd (COI) hold?
Comet Ridge Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$6.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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