Coinbase Global, Inc (COIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $42.3B
Coinbase Global, Inc
COIN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −11.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($71.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.53 – $419.78 · fair‑value band $42.78 – $71.31 · the $145.41 price screens above the $57.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Coinbase Global, Inc (COIN) currently trades at $145.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.05, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Coinbase Global, Inc generated revenue of $6.3B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue declined 30.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $42.78 (bear case) to $71.31 (bull case); at $145.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -61%, COIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($199.59) versus Dividend Discount ($15.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It provides the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions; and a suite of products granting access to build onchain for developers.
Full company description
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It provides the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions; and a suite of products granting access to build onchain for developers. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Coinbase Global, Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.8B in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding −23.2%/yr from FY2021.
COIN screens 61% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Coinbase Just Built the Bridge Between Crypto and Wall Street. USDC Is the Concrete.
- Hopes Fade for Senate Crypto Bill Vote, Leaving Coinbase Stock Exposed
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
| Singapore Exchange Limited S68 | 23.88 SGD | 7.88 SGD | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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