Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DE · Market cap €46.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€106.81 to €335.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €121.41 – €283.89 · fair‑value band €106.81 – €335.93 · the €269.40 price screens above the €142.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) currently trades at €269.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €142.42, implying the stock looks roughly 47.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Börse AG generated revenue of €7.5B at a net margin of 27.3%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at €6.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €106.81 (bear case) to €335.93 (bull case); at €269.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -47%, DB1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€258.99) versus Asset-Based (€41.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Deutsche Börse AG operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Investment Management Solutions, Trading & Clearing, Fund Services, and Securities Services.
Full company description
Deutsche Börse AG operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Investment Management Solutions, Trading & Clearing, Fund Services, and Securities Services. The Investment Management Solutions segment offers financial data, analytics, and software-as-a-service solutions including research, data collection, data analysis, and the provision of indices, analytics and investment management software to institutional investors, banks, and corporate clients. The Trading & Clearing segment engages in the development and operation of markets and trading systems for securities, derivatives, commodities, currencies, digital assets, and other asset classes. This segment handles settlement of transactions through clearing houses. Its Fund Services segment provides infrastructure and services for fund processing, including order routing, settlement, custody, data and distribution support for investment funds. The Securities Services segment offers various services for securities issuance, settlement, custody as well as collateral, securities lending, and liquidity management. The company was founded in 1585 and is headquartered in Eschborn, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Deutsche Börse AG reported revenue of €7.4B in FY2025 versus €4.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
DB1 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
| Singapore Exchange Limited S68 | 23.88 SGD | 7.88 SGD | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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