Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Deutsche Börse AG stock €230, price €320, that is 28.3% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €124.64 – €327.50 · fair‑value band €109.16 – €339.96 · the €320.00 price screens above the €229.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Deutsche Börse AG operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Investment Management Solutions, Trading & Clearing, Fund Services, and Securities Services.
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The Investment Management Solutions segment offers financial data, analytics, and software-as-a-service solutions including research, data collection, data analysis, and the provision of indices, analytics and investment management software to institutional investors, banks, and corporate clients.
The Trading & Clearing segment engages in the development and operation of markets and trading systems for securities, derivatives, commodities, currencies, digital assets, and other asset classes. This segment handles settlement of transactions through clearing houses.
Its Fund Services segment provides infrastructure and services for fund processing, including order routing, settlement, custody, data and distribution support for investment funds.
The Securities Services segment offers various services for securities issuance, settlement, custody as well as collateral, securities lending, and liquidity management. The company was founded in 1585 and is headquartered in Eschborn, Germany.
Stock analysis
Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) currently trades at €320.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €229.53, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €229.53 per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the €320.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €77.48, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €109.16 (bear) to €339.96 (bull), the price of €320.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Deutsche Börse AG reported revenue of €7.4B in FY2025 versus €4.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €57.8B Large · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 7.19 · EPS (TTM) €12.12 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 27.4% · Return on equity 20.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −28%, DB1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€109.16Fair Value €229.53Bull€339.96
Price €320.00 · Downside -28.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€6.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.1% vs 10.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 40%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Deutsche Börse draws moderate moat strength from exchange network effects and broad segment growth along the securities value chain but is limited by thin public evidence on durability amid sector cyclicality.
Main risk: Easing of the cyclical tailwind would reduce revenue momentum across the securities segments that currently benefit from structural inflows and trading volumes.
Deutsche Börse delivered broad-based double-digit revenue growth in six of eight segments during Q3, driven by structural inflows into capital market products plus a cyclical tailwind. The treasury result turned positive year-over-year for the first time since 2024, supporting a second upward revision to full-year 2026 guidance. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the long-term positioning along the entire securities value chain deliver sustained outperformance, or will the current momentum fade once cyclical support eases?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Below median
Fair Value upside−28.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)41.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.4× · Pricier than median
P/B5.11× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)7.19× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG3.63× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)81· sector 82
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Börse AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DB1
Frequently asked questions
Is Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €229.53 versus a price of €320.00, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DB1?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Börse AG is €229.53 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €320.00.
What is the quality score of DB1?
Deutsche Börse AG has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €229.53 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €109.16, optimistic scenario €339.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutsche Börse AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €229.53, about 28% lower versus a price of €320.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €109.16, optimistic scenario €339.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Deutsche Börse AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Deutsche Börse AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Börse AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Börse AG it is €229.53 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €320.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deutsche Börse AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DB1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €320.00, fair value €229.53, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DB1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€320.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€229.53). For Deutsche Börse AG the two are €90.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutsche Börse AG worth?
The market values Deutsche Börse AG at about €57.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €320.00; our models calculate a fair value of €229.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DB1?
Our models span a range for Deutsche Börse AG: cautious scenario €109.16, base €229.53, optimistic €339.96 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €320.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DB1?
Deutsche Börse AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €229.53 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 20.9. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 5.1, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 17.6.
What is the PEG ratio of DB1?
The PEG ratio of Deutsche Börse AG is 3.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deutsche Börse AG (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 20.3%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DB1 from its 52-week high?
Deutsche Börse AG trades at €320.00, about 2% below its 52-week high of €327.50 and 60% above the low of €199.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €229.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Börse AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutsche Börse AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €320.00, calculated fair value €229.53 (−28%), Quality Score 62/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DB1 calculated?
We run Deutsche Börse AG through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €229.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Deutsche Börse AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €320.00. Our model-based fair value is €229.53, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deutsche Börse AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€109.16 to €339.96). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) come from?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Börse AG grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.5 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Deutsche Börse AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The market capitalisation of Deutsche Börse AG is €57.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deutsche Börse AG is 7.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Börse AG are €12.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The dividend yield of Deutsche Börse AG is 1.3% (payout 34.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The net margin of Deutsche Börse AG is 27.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deutsche Börse AG is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutsche Börse AG is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
The operating margin of Deutsche Börse AG is 41.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Revenue at Deutsche Börse AG is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deutsche Börse AG (DB1)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Börse AG are growing +19.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) generate?
The free cash flow of Deutsche Börse AG is €2.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) carry?
The net debt of Deutsche Börse AG is €6.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026