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MSCI Inc (MSCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what MSCI Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US55354G1004

MI MSCI Inc logo Some data Sep 18, 2026

MSCI Inc

MSCI · US

Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.

!Fair value $241.03 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)
✓Quality 84/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 40.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·1.35% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
✓Wide moat 94/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$643.83 $360.53 Fair Value $241.03 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $360.53 – $643.83 · fair‑value band $161.18 – $396.45 · the $552.87 price screens above the $241.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes, supported by advanced technology worldwide.

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MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes, supported by advanced technology worldwide. The Index segment provides indexes for use in various areas of the investment process, including indexed financial products, such as ETFs, mutual funds, annuities, futures, options, structured products, and over-the-counter derivatives; performance benchmarking; portfolio construction and rebalancing; and asset allocation, as well as licenses GICS and GICS Direct. The Analytics segment offers risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, application, an integrated view of risk and return service, and an analysis of market, credit, liquidity, counterparty, and climate risk across asset classes; managed services, including consolidation of client portfolio data, review and reconciliation of input data and results, and customized reporting; and HedgePlatform to measure, evaluate, and monitor the risk of hedge fund investments. The Sustainability and Climate segment provides products and services that help institutional investors understand how ESG impacts the long-term risk and return of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and data, ratings, research, and tools to assist investors navigate increasing regulation. The All Other " Private Assets segment comprises private credit, real estate and infrastructure data, benchmarks, return-analytics, climate assessments and market insights; business intelligence to real estate owners, managers, developers, and brokers; and offers investment decision support tools for private capital. The Private Capital Solutions segment offers tools to help private asset investors across mission-critical workflows, such as sourcing terms and conditions, evaluating operating performance, managing risk and other activities supporting private capital investment. MSCI Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

MSCI Inc (MSCI) currently trades at $552.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $241.03, implying the stock looks roughly 129.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $258.30 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $552.87 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $111.51, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $161.18 (bear) to $396.45 (bull), the price of $552.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

MSCI Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $42.7B · P/E ratio 31.6 · P/S ratio 12.1 · EPS (TTM) $17.51 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 38.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.4% · Operating margin 53.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −56%, MSCI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $161.18 Fair Value $241.03 Bull $396.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.28 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $193.87 $396.71 $739.66 74
Owner Earnings $166.10 $362.70 $703.85 72
Rev-Margin DCF $50.23 $111.51 $188.55 70
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $166.10 $362.70 $703.85 72
5Y P/E Exit $110.63 $233.61 $371.67 68
10Y P/E Exit $137.06 $258.30 $424.56 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $112.42 $517.90 $711.06 64
Lynch FV $136.20 $194.58 $252.95 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $70.26 $146.09 $231.75 66
DDM Multi-Stage $70.26 $123.18 $153.32 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $161.18 $214.91 $268.64 63
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $193.87 $396.71 $739.66 74
Rev-Margin DCF $50.23 $111.51 $188.55 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 84/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 79
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 20%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 55%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+11.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.4%

MSCI screens 129% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 21% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 54% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.6× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 13.58× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 28.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 26.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.95× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)71 · sector 69
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 77
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)27 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
S&P Global Inc SPGI $412.52 $209.90 −49%
CME Group CME $275.09 $196.82 −28%
Moody's Corporation MCO $467.16 $192.63 −59%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE $154.10 $125.68 −18%
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited 80388 HK$336.60 HK$486.71 +45%
Deutsche Börse AG DB1 €277.20 €219.04 −21%
Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ $89.23 $41.12 −54%
Coinbase Global, Inc COIN $172.11 $183.56 +7%
Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE $270.44 $243.53 −10%
Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 ¥201.04 ¥132.96 −34%

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MSCI Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MSCI Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSCI

Frequently asked questions

Is MSCI Inc (MSCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $241.03 versus a price of $552.87, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSCI?
Our model-based fair value for MSCI Inc is $241.03 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $552.87.
What is the quality score of MSCI?
MSCI Inc has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $241.03 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $161.18, optimistic scenario $396.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MSCI Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $241.03, about −56% upside versus a price of $552.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $161.18, optimistic scenario $396.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
MSCI Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does MSCI Inc pay a dividend?
MSCI Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MSCI Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSCI use?
Our models discount MSCI Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MSCI Inc that is +18.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MSCI Inc (MSCI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MSCI Inc grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +18.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MSCI Inc (MSCI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MSCI Inc (+18.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow MSCI Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MSCI Inc it is $241.03 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $552.87. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MSCI Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, MSCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $552.87, fair value $241.03, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($552.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($241.03). For MSCI Inc the two are $311.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MSCI Inc worth?
The market values MSCI Inc at about $42.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $552.87; our models calculate a fair value of $241.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSCI?
Our models span a range for MSCI Inc: cautious scenario $161.18, base $241.03, optimistic $396.45 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $552.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSCI?
MSCI Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $241.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/S 13.6, EV/EBITDA 26.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MSCI?
The PEG ratio of MSCI Inc is 1.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How far is MSCI from its 52-week high?
MSCI Inc trades at $552.87, about 14% below its 52-week high of $644.68 and 11% above the low of $497.32 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $241.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MSCI Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Moody's Corporation, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MSCI Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $552.87, calculated fair value $241.03 (−56%), Quality Score 84/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSCI calculated?
We run MSCI Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $241.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MSCI Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $552.87. Our model-based fair value is $241.03, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MSCI Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($396.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($161.18 to $396.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of MSCI Inc (MSCI) come from?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc grew +22.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MSCI Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The market capitalisation of MSCI Inc is $42.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MSCI Inc is 12.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are $17.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The dividend yield of MSCI Inc is 1.3% (payout 42.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The net margin of MSCI Inc is 38.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MSCI Inc is 25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The operating margin of MSCI Inc is 53.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Revenue at MSCI Inc is growing +14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are growing +49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MSCI Inc (MSCI) carry?
The net debt of MSCI Inc is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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