Capital Power Corporation (CPX) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CA · Market cap C$11.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −12.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$18.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.06 – C$75.95 · fair‑value band C$11.08 – C$18.47 · the C$64.80 price screens above the C$14.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Capital Power Corporation (CPX) currently trades at C$64.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$14.77, implying the stock looks roughly 77.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Capital Power Corporation generated revenue of C$3.8B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 23.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at C$6.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$11.08 (bear case) to C$18.47 (bull case); at C$64.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -77%, CPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (C$34.77) versus Earnings-Based (C$10.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage.
Full company description
Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage. It also manages its related electricity and natural gas portfolios by undertaking trading and marketing activities. In addition, the company owns approximately 12 GW of gross power generation capacity in North America; 180 MW of renewable generation capacity in North Carolina; approximately 170 MW of new battery energy storage systems in Ontario. Capital Power Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capital Power Corporation reported revenue of C$3.3B in FY2025 versus C$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$160M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
CPX screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Capital Power reports second quarter 2026 results
- Capital Power declares dividends for its Preference and Common shares and announces a 2% dividend increase for its Common shares
- Meta and Capital Power seal 250MW energy supply agreement
- Capital Power Enters Long-Term Power Deal for Meta's Data Center in Alberta
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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