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Centrica plc (CPYYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Centrica plc $9.98, price $2.00, upside +399.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Utilities · US · ISIN GB00B033F229

CP Centrica plc logo Some data Oct 3, 2026

Centrica plc

CPYYF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $9.98 · Strongly undervalued (+399.0%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$2.90 $0.3112 Fair Value $9.98 Jun 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3112 – $2.90 · fair‑value band $5.99 – $14.82 · the $2.00 price screens below the $9.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Centrica plc operates as an integrated energy company in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Scandinavia, North America, and internationally. The company operates through British Gas Services & Solutions, British Gas Energy, Centrica Business Solutions, Bord Gáis Energy, Energy Marketing & Trading, and Upstream segments.

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Centrica plc operates as an integrated energy company in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Scandinavia, North America, and internationally. The company operates through British Gas Services & Solutions, British Gas Energy, Centrica Business Solutions, Bord Gáis Energy, Energy Marketing & Trading, and Upstream segments. It supplies gas and electricity to residential, commercial, industrial customers, and small businesses, as well as offers energy-related services; and generates power from nuclear assets. The company also provides installation, repair, and maintenance services for domestic central heating, plumbing and drains, electrical appliances; and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as offers breakdown services. In addition, it is involved in the procurement, trading, and optimization of energy; procurement and sale of LNG; and supply of energy efficiency solutions and technologies. Further, the company produces and processes gas and oil; develops new fields to maintain reserves; constructs, owns, and exploits infrastructure; and engages in the social enterprise investment fund activities. Additionally, it provides vehicle leasing, commercial, and insurance services, as well as energy management products and services; constructs battery storage; builds solar farm and connects to grid; and operates a gas storage and franchise network. The company was formerly known as Yieldtop plc and changed its name to Centrica plc in December 1996. Centrica plc was founded in 1812 and is based in Windsor, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Centrica plc (CPYYF) currently trades at $2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.98, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.72 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the $2.00 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.77, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.99 (bear) to $14.82 (bull), the price of $2.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Centrica plc reported revenue of £19.5B in FY2025 versus £14.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −£72.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $10.6B · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% · Operating margin 20.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 399%, CPYYF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.99 Fair Value $9.98 Bull $14.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.13 $2.75 $3.69 79
Growth DCF $2.19 $2.77 $3.63 77
EPV $13.34 $15.47 $17.33 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.13 $2.75 $3.69 79
5Y Revenue Exit $6.99 $11.32 $16.95 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.77 $12.69 $18.43 72
10Y Revenue Exit $4.84 $8.37 $12.69 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.61 $9.28 $13.73 65
Earnings-Based
EPV $13.34 $15.47 $17.33 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.6400 $0.9000 $1.18 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6400 $0.8900 $1.19 65
Multiples
EV/EBIT $17.33 $22.93 $28.52 66
EV/EBITDA $12.68 $16.72 $20.76 67
EV/Revenue $10.53 $14.80 $19.08 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4500 $0.6000 $0.9000 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.19 $2.77 $3.63 77
Rev-Margin DCF $6.99 $11.29 $15.93 70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $13.38 $15.56 $17.49 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.0% (2020) → 26.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.3%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 72 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 18.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −0.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.78× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 32.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.44× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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CGN Power Co 003816 ¥4.19 ¥2.18 −48%
Gulf Development Public Company GULF 59.25 THB 65.18 THB +10%
NRG Energy, Inc NRG $96.93 $74.44 −23%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,339 ₹335.95 −75%
Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 ¥6.74 ¥9.10 +35%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥5.36 ¥3.65 −32%
China Resources Power Holdings 0836 HK$18.99 HK$36.45 +92%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Centrica plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPYYF

Frequently asked questions

Is Centrica plc (CPYYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.98 versus a price of $2.00, about +399% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPYYF?
Our model-based fair value for Centrica plc is $9.98 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.00.
What is the quality score of CPYYF?
Centrica plc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.98 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.99, optimistic scenario $14.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centrica plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.98, about +399% upside versus a price of $2.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.99, optimistic scenario $14.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Centrica plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £19.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Centrica plc pay a dividend?
Centrica plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Centrica plc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPYYF use?
Our models discount Centrica plc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Centrica plc that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Centrica plc (CPYYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Centrica plc grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Centrica plc (CPYYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Centrica plc (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.45 %: that much free cash flow Centrica plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centrica plc it is $9.98 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.00. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Centrica plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CPYYF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.00, fair value $9.98, a gap of about +399% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPYYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.98). For Centrica plc the two are $7.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centrica plc worth?
The market values Centrica plc at about $10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.00; our models calculate a fair value of $9.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPYYF?
Our models span a range for Centrica plc: cautious scenario $5.99, base $9.98, optimistic $14.82 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CPYYF?
The PEG ratio of Centrica plc is 0.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centrica plc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPYYF from its 52-week high?
Centrica plc trades at $2.00, about 31% below its 52-week high of $2.90 and at the low of $2.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centrica plc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centrica plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.00, calculated fair value $9.98 (+399%), Quality Score 60/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPYYF calculated?
We run Centrica plc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Centrica plc currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.00. Our model-based fair value is $9.98, about +399% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centrica plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($5.99 to $14.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Centrica plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The market capitalisation of Centrica plc is $10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centrica plc is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Earnings per share at Centrica plc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The dividend yield of Centrica plc is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The net margin of Centrica plc is −0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centrica plc is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centrica plc is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
The operating margin of Centrica plc is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Centrica plc (CPYYF)?
Earnings per share at Centrica plc are growing +29.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Centrica plc (CPYYF) hold?
Centrica plc holds more cash than debt, £1.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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