California Resources Corp (CRC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of California Resources Corp $57.22, price $52.10, upside +9.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.39 – $69.66 · fair‑value band $42.91 – $71.52 · the $52.10 price screens below the $57.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers.
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California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers. The company also provides Carbon TerraVault which builds, installs, operates, and maintains CO2 capture equipment, transportation assets, and storage facilities. In addition, it owns and operates power generation facilities, as well as smaller gas-fired power plants used to generate power for oil and natural gas operations. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Long Beach, California.
Stock analysis
California Resources Corp (CRC) currently trades at $52.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.22, implying the stock looks roughly 9.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $67.25 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $52.10 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.71, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $42.91 (bear) to $71.52 (bull), the price of $52.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
California Resources Corp reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $363M in FY2025, compounding −12.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) $−1.23 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% · Operating margin 46.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, CRC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $42.91Fair Value $57.22Bull $71.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23% vs −5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare California Resources Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)47% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is California Resources Corp (CRC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.22 versus a price of $52.10, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CRC?
Our model-based fair value for California Resources Corp is $57.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.10.
What is the quality score of CRC?
California Resources Corp has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.91, optimistic scenario $71.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the California Resources Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.22, about +10% upside versus a price of $52.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $42.91, optimistic scenario $71.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
California Resources Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does California Resources Corp pay a dividend?
California Resources Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into California Resources Corp (CRC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, California Resources Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRC use?
Our models discount California Resources Corp at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For California Resources Corp that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has California Resources Corp (CRC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at California Resources Corp grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of California Resources Corp (CRC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into California Resources Corp (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.67 %: that much free cash flow California Resources Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For California Resources Corp it is $57.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $52.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is California Resources Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CRC trades below its calculated fair value: price $52.10, fair value $57.22, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.22). For California Resources Corp the two are $5.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is California Resources Corp worth?
The market values California Resources Corp at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $52.10; our models calculate a fair value of $57.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRC?
Our models span a range for California Resources Corp: cautious scenario $42.91, base $57.22, optimistic $71.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $52.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CRC?
The PEG ratio of California Resources Corp is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Balance-sheet figures for California Resources Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRC from its 52-week high?
California Resources Corp trades at $52.10, about 25% below its 52-week high of $69.66 and 21% above the low of $42.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to California Resources Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is California Resources Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $52.10, calculated fair value $57.22 (+10%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRC calculated?
We run California Resources Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $57.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. California Resources Corp currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $52.10. Our model-based fair value is $57.22, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with California Resources Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of California Resources Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The market capitalisation of California Resources Corp is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of California Resources Corp is 1.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Earnings per share at California Resources Corp are $−1.23. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The dividend yield of California Resources Corp is 3.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The net margin of California Resources Corp is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of California Resources Corp is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of California Resources Corp is 20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The operating margin of California Resources Corp is 46.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Revenue at California Resources Corp is growing +33.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Earnings per share at California Resources Corp are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does California Resources Corp (CRC) carry?
The net debt of California Resources Corp is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026