California Resources Corp (CRC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of California Resources Corp stock $57.57, price $46.96, upside +22.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.77 – $69.14 · fair‑value band $43.18 – $71.96 · the $46.96 price screens below the $57.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management.
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It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers.
The company also provides Carbon TerraVault which builds, installs, operates, and maintains CO2 capture equipment, transportation assets, and storage facilities.
In addition, it owns and operates power generation facilities, as well as smaller gas-fired power plants used to generate power for oil and natural gas operations. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Long Beach, California.
Stock analysis
California Resources Corp (CRC) currently trades at $46.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.57, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $87.72 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $46.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $24.74, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $43.18 (bear) to $71.96 (bull), the price of $46.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
California Resources Corp reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $363M in FY2025, compounding −12.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B Mid · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $−5.60 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin −12.7% · Return on equity −15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −36.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 23%, CRC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$43.18Fair Value $57.57Bull$71.96
Price $46.96 · Upside +22.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleMark Allen McFarlandDirector16,372 shares at $64.83$1.1MMar 6, 2026
SaleNoelle M. RepettiSenior VP and Controller8,564 shares at $63.71$545,612Mar 5, 2026
BuyWilliam B RobyDirector467 shares at $47.63$22,229Nov 12, 2025
BuyFrancisco LeonPresident and CEO, Director5,425 shares at $47.71$258,827Nov 12, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.6% vs −5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and −4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The commodity E&P profile gains from a sharpened California focus with midstream pipelines for local access yet faces limits from its narrower geographic footprint versus broader asset spreads.
Main risk: The narrower California-centric model risks limiting strategic options and durable cash flows compared with keeping more geographic asset spread.
California Resources is selling its non-core Uinta assets acquired in the Berry deal to sharpen focus on California operations while folding in midstream pipelines for better local market access. This tightens the business around its home base and carbon initiatives but creates tension around whether the narrower footprint limits options compared with keeping more geographic spread. Will the California-centric model build more durable cash flows than a broader set of assets?
Compare California Resources Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+22.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−12.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−36.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.14× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.06× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.7× · Cheaper than median
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Is California Resources Corp (CRC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.57 versus a price of $46.96, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CRC?
Our model-based fair value for California Resources Corp is $57.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $46.96.
What is the quality score of CRC?
California Resources Corp has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $43.18, optimistic scenario $71.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the California Resources Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.57, about +23% upside versus a price of $46.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $43.18, optimistic scenario $71.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
California Resources Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does California Resources Corp pay a dividend?
California Resources Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of California Resources Corp (CRC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
California Resources Corp pays a dividend of $1.62 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 39.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.80 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into California Resources Corp (CRC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, California Resources Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRC use?
Our models discount California Resources Corp at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For California Resources Corp that is -3.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has California Resources Corp (CRC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at California Resources Corp grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of California Resources Corp (CRC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into California Resources Corp (-3.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.95 %: that much free cash flow California Resources Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For California Resources Corp it is $57.57 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $46.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is California Resources Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CRC trades below its calculated fair value: price $46.96, fair value $57.57, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($46.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.57). For California Resources Corp the two are $10.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is California Resources Corp worth?
The market values California Resources Corp at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $46.96; our models calculate a fair value of $57.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRC?
Our models span a range for California Resources Corp: cautious scenario $43.18, base $57.57, optimistic $71.96 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $46.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CRC?
The PEG ratio of California Resources Corp is 0.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Balance-sheet figures for California Resources Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −15.5%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRC from its 52-week high?
California Resources Corp trades at $46.96, about 32% below its 52-week high of $69.14 and 10% above the low of $42.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to California Resources Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is California Resources Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $46.96, calculated fair value $57.57 (+23%), Quality Score 45/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRC calculated?
We run California Resources Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $57.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. California Resources Corp currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $46.96. Our model-based fair value is $57.57, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with California Resources Corp right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of California Resources Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The market capitalisation of California Resources Corp is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of California Resources Corp is 1.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Earnings per share at California Resources Corp are $−5.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The dividend yield of California Resources Corp is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The net margin of California Resources Corp is −12.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of California Resources Corp is −15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of California Resources Corp is 20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
The operating margin of California Resources Corp is −36.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Revenue at California Resources Corp is growing +24.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at California Resources Corp (CRC)?
Earnings per share at California Resources Corp are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does California Resources Corp (CRC) carry?
The net debt of California Resources Corp is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026