Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Cardinal Ethanol LLC $28,233, price $24,500, upside +15.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Cardinal Ethanol LLC for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $91.91 – $25,000 · fair‑value band $21,625 – $38,767 · the $24,500 price screens below the $28,233 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Cardinal Ethanol LLC in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Cardinal Ethanol LLC is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Cardinal Ethanol, LLC engages in production and sale of fuel-grade ethanol, distiller grains, corn oil, and raw carbon dioxide in the continental United States. The company's ethanol is used as an octane enhancer in fuels; an oxygenated fuel additive for reducing ozone and carbon monoxide emissions; and a non-petroleum-based gasoline substitute.
Show more
Cardinal Ethanol, LLC engages in production and sale of fuel-grade ethanol, distiller grains, corn oil, and raw carbon dioxide in the continental United States. The company's ethanol is used as an octane enhancer in fuels; an oxygenated fuel additive for reducing ozone and carbon monoxide emissions; and a non-petroleum-based gasoline substitute. It also offers distillers grains for applications as animal feed supplement for dairy, beef, poultry, and swine industries; corn oil that is used as a feed ingredient, feedstock to produce biodiesel, and for other industrial uses; and carbon dioxide gas. The company markets and distributes its products directly, as well as through third party brokers. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Indiana Ethanol, LLC and changed its name to Cardinal Ethanol, LLC in September 2005. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Union City, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE) currently trades at $24,500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28,233, implying the stock looks roughly 13.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $90,461 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the $24,500 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11,349, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21,625 (bear) to $38,767 (bull), the price of $24,500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cardinal Ethanol LLC reported revenue of $503M in FY2023 versus $261M in FY2019, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $69.8M in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $163M · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 1.58 · EPS (TTM) $2,150 · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 20.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4% · Operating margin 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 15%, CRDE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21,625Fair Value $28,233Bull $38,767
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+37.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 347 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−29.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28,233 versus a price of $24,500, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CRDE?
Our model-based fair value for Cardinal Ethanol LLC is $28,233 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24,500.
What is the quality score of CRDE?
Cardinal Ethanol LLC has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28,233 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21,625, optimistic scenario $38,767. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cardinal Ethanol LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28,233, about +15% upside versus a price of $24,500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21,625, optimistic scenario $38,767. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Cardinal Ethanol LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $350M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cardinal Ethanol LLC would have to grow free cash flow by -7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRDE use?
Our models discount Cardinal Ethanol LLC at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cardinal Ethanol LLC that is -7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cardinal Ethanol LLC grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies -7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cardinal Ethanol LLC (-7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.51 %: that much free cash flow Cardinal Ethanol LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cardinal Ethanol LLC it is $28,233 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $24,500. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cardinal Ethanol LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CRDE trades below its calculated fair value: price $24,500, fair value $28,233, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRDE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24,500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28,233). For Cardinal Ethanol LLC the two are $3,733 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cardinal Ethanol LLC worth?
The market values Cardinal Ethanol LLC at about $163M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $24,500; our models calculate a fair value of $28,233 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRDE?
Our models span a range for Cardinal Ethanol LLC: cautious scenario $21,625, base $28,233, optimistic $38,767 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $24,500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CRDE?
Cardinal Ethanol LLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28,233 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cardinal Ethanol LLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.2%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRDE from its 52-week high?
Cardinal Ethanol LLC trades at $24,500, about 2% below its 52-week high of $25,000 and 63% above the low of $15,000 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28,233 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cardinal Ethanol LLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cardinal Ethanol LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $24,500, calculated fair value $28,233 (+15%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRDE calculated?
We run Cardinal Ethanol LLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28,233, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cardinal Ethanol LLC currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $24,500. Our model-based fair value is $28,233, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cardinal Ethanol LLC right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Cardinal Ethanol LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The market capitalisation of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is $163M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is 1.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Earnings per share at Cardinal Ethanol LLC are $2,150 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The net margin of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is 13.9% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
The operating margin of Cardinal Ethanol LLC is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Revenue at Cardinal Ethanol LLC is growing −29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cardinal Ethanol LLC (CRDE)?
Earnings per share at Cardinal Ethanol LLC are growing −62.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
Free · no account needed
Watch Cardinal Ethanol LLC in the live analysis
One click puts Cardinal Ethanol LLC on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026