Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Crescent Energy Co $12.16, price $13.18, upside -7.7%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $6.88 – $15.70 · fair‑value band $12.16 – $15.82 · the $13.18 price screens above the $12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Crescent Energy Company engages in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's activities focused in Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta Basins. It owns minerals and royalty interests across the U.S. oil and natural gas basins.
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Crescent Energy Company engages in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's activities focused in Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta Basins. It owns minerals and royalty interests across the U.S. oil and natural gas basins. Crescent Energy Company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) currently trades at $13.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.16, implying the stock looks roughly 8.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $32.84 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the $13.18 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.27, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.16 (bear) to $15.82 (bull), the price of $13.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Crescent Energy Co reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7300 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% · Operating margin −31.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −8%, CRGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.16Fair Value $12.16Bull $15.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−50% → 13%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.4%/yr over ~5Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.3% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−31% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.07× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Crescent Energy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.16 versus a price of $13.18, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CRGY?
Our model-based fair value for Crescent Energy Co is $12.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.18.
What is the quality score of CRGY?
Crescent Energy Co has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.16, optimistic scenario $15.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crescent Energy Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.16, about −8% upside versus a price of $13.18 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.16, optimistic scenario $15.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Crescent Energy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Crescent Energy Co pay a dividend?
Crescent Energy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Crescent Energy Co would have to grow free cash flow by +0.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRGY use?
Our models discount Crescent Energy Co at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Crescent Energy Co that is +0.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Crescent Energy Co grew +36.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Crescent Energy Co (+0.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.57 %: that much free cash flow Crescent Energy Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crescent Energy Co it is $12.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $13.18. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crescent Energy Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CRGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.18, fair value $12.16, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.16). For Crescent Energy Co the two are $1.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crescent Energy Co worth?
The market values Crescent Energy Co at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $13.18; our models calculate a fair value of $12.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRGY?
Our models span a range for Crescent Energy Co: cautious scenario $12.16, base $12.16, optimistic $15.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $13.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crescent Energy Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 1.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRGY from its 52-week high?
Crescent Energy Co trades at $13.18, about 14% below its 52-week high of $15.37 and 73% above the low of $7.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crescent Energy Co?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crescent Energy Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $13.18, calculated fair value $12.16 (−8%), Quality Score 26/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRGY calculated?
We run Crescent Energy Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Crescent Energy Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.18. Our model-based fair value is $12.16, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crescent Energy Co right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Crescent Energy Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The market capitalisation of Crescent Energy Co is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crescent Energy Co is 0.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Earnings per share at Crescent Energy Co are $−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The dividend yield of Crescent Energy Co is 3.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The net margin of Crescent Energy Co is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crescent Energy Co is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crescent Energy Co is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
The operating margin of Crescent Energy Co is −31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Revenue at Crescent Energy Co is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)?
Earnings per share at Crescent Energy Co are growing +80.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) carry?
The net debt of Crescent Energy Co is $5.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026