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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation $5.89, price $4.48, upside +31.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN CNE1000021L3

Some data Sep 24, 2026

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation

CRYCY · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $5.89 · Undervalued (+31.5%)

!Quality 49/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +6.4 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (TTM)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!3.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage

!Narrow moat 36/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $5.50 to bull $6.80 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 49/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.36 – $5.58 · fair‑value band $5.50 – $6.80 · the $4.48 price screens below the $5.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transportation control system solutions in China and internationally. It operates through Rail Transportation Control System, General Engineering Contracting, and Others segments. The company offers design and integration, and system integration services for rail transportation control system-related products; and design and consulting services for rail transportation projects. It also produces and sells signal system products, communication information system products, infrastructure equipment and information systems, and other related products. In addition, the company offers construction, installation, testing, operation, and maintenance services for rail transportation control projects; and services relating to municipal engineering projects and other construction projects. Further, it engages in the system delivery service, investment management, and technical exchange and trade activities, as well as provision of project management activities. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Railway Signal & Communication (Group) Corporation Limited.

Stock analysis

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) currently trades at $4.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.89, implying the stock looks roughly 23.9% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $9.64 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the $4.48 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.99, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.50 (bear) to $6.80 (bull), the price of $4.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation reported revenue of 34.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 38.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.8B · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.92 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 31%, CRYCY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.50 Fair Value $5.89 Bull $6.80

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2495 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Owner Earnings $7.08 $8.99 $11.54 78

Residual Income $5.37 $5.68 $6.26 76

EPV $6.55 $7.26 $7.87 74

All 15 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $7.08 $8.99 $11.54 78

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $3.36 $6.97 $8.81 66

EPV $6.55 $7.26 $7.87 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $2.13 $3.11 $4.11 69

DDM Multi-Stage $2.13 $2.99 $3.93 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $7.78 $10.37 $12.96 63

P/S Multiple $6.30 $8.39 $10.49 58

P/B Multiple $6.30 $8.39 $10.49 55

EV/EBIT $9.50 $11.98 $14.45 66

EV/EBITDA $8.75 $10.98 $13.21 67

EV/Revenue $7.37 $9.64 $11.92 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.28 $4.40 $6.57 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $5.37 $5.68 $6.26 76

ROIC Compounder $6.55 $7.43 $8.38 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $5.69 $8.13 $10.57 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 29

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 46

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 3

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 61

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 97

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 87

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 47

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 51

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 71

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 45/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+2.1%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−1.7%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.7% vs 1.3%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 49 · Below median

Fair Value upside +74.8% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 8.1% · Above median

Return on assets 2.2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 10.6% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 11.6% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −3.5% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.0× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP	$272.13	$153.47	−44%
CSX Corporation CSX	$46.51	$12.91	−72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP	$86.56	$37.51	−57%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI	$121.14	$98.68	−19%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC	$309.00	$133.05	−57%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB	$288.00	$290.92	+1%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816	¥4.69	¥5.65	+20%
CRRC Corporation 601766	¥5.97	¥9.21	+54%
Daqin Railway Co 601006	¥4.66	¥5.48	+18%
Getlink SE GET	€18.83	€10.42	−45%

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation · Fair Value
$5.89 +24%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRYCY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication Corporation · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$5.89</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+24%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRYCY

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.89 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $4.48, about +31% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of CRYCY?

Our model-based fair value for China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is $5.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): $4.48.

What is the quality score of CRYCY?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.50, optimistic scenario $6.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $5.89, about +31% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $4.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.50, optimistic scenario $6.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation pay a dividend?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation it is $5.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.48. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, CRYCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.48, fair value $5.89, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CRYCY?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.89). For China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation the two are $1.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation worth?

The market values China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation at about $4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.48; our models calculate a fair value of $5.89 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRYCY?

Our models span a range for China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: cautious scenario $5.50, base $5.89, optimistic $6.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of CRYCY?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.89 is built from several models across several years.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CRYCY from its 52-week high?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation trades at $4.48, about 10% below its 52-week high of $5.00 and 15% above the low of $3.91 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.89 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.48, calculated fair value $5.89 (+31%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CRYCY calculated?

We run China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at $4.48. Our model-based fair value is $5.89, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Where does the earnings growth of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) come from?

Earnings per share at China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation grew +0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The market capitalisation of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is $4.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 0.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

Earnings per share at China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The dividend yield of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 3.8% (payout 34.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The net margin of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

The operating margin of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY)?

Revenue at China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How much free cash flow does China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) generate?

The free cash flow of China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation is −1.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation (CRYCY) hold?

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation holds more cash than debt, 10.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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