Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $478B
Cisco Systems Inc
CSCO · US
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from $61.53 to $80.31 (+30.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 38% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($102.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($51.06 to $102.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $35.46 – $129.52 · fair‑value band $51.06 – $102.03 · the $111.11 price screens above the $80.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) currently trades at $111.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.31, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cisco Systems Inc generated revenue of $60.7B at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.2%. Net debt stands at $19.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $51.06 (bear case) to $102.03 (bull case); at $111.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -28%, CSCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($67.67) versus Asset-Based ($7.96). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.
Full company description
Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company offers data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; threat intelligence, detection, and response solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite; issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable. It also delivers connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; wireless products, including indoor and outdoor wireless coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications; end-to-end collaboration solutions through cloud, on-premise, or within hybrid cloud environments, transition collaboration solutions from on-premise to the cloud; and network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite. In addition, it offers technical support and advisory services. The company serves businesses, public institutions, governments, and service providers. It sells its products and services directly, through systems integrators, service providers, resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cisco Systems Inc reported revenue of $56.7B in FY2025 versus $49.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.2B in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CSCO screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Zhongji Innolight Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cisco and Supermicro Are Building for AI's Next Phase
- Lumentum's 1.6T & 200G Ramp Faces Cisco & NVIDIA Competition
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) Looks Fairly Valued As AI Orders And Guidance Lift Sentiment
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 307 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥921.00 | ¥171.09 | -81% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥61.83 | ¥28.65 | -54% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥429.90 | ¥176.99 | -59% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $10.32 | $3.77 | -63% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $469.74 | $236.33 | -50% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥276.25 | ¥43.67 | -84% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $10.27 | $19.93 | +94% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,270 TWD | 1,135 TWD | -50% |
| Ubiquiti Inc UI | $577.76 | $252.79 | -56% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥33.67 | ¥19.72 | -41% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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