China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd $18.43, price $22.05, upside -16.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.01 – $25.40 · fair‑value band $12.76 – $25.57 · the $22.05 price screens above the $18.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations.
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China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.
Stock analysis
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) currently trades at $22.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.43, 16.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $28.42 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the $22.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.24, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.76 (bear) to $25.57 (bull), the price of $22.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd reported revenue of 295B CNY in FY2025 versus 335B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 52.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $110B · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) $1.53 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin 17.9% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −16%, CSUAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.76Fair Value $18.43Bull $25.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.1% vs 8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.7% · Above median
Return on assets6.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.54× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF28.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.2× · Pricier than median
PEG10.55× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 55
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSUAY
Frequently asked questions
Is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.43 versus a price of $22.05, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CSUAY?
Our model-based fair value for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is $18.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.05.
What is the quality score of CSUAY?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.76, optimistic scenario $25.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.43, about −16% upside versus a price of $22.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.76, optimistic scenario $25.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 296B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSUAY use?
Our models discount China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.63 %: that much free cash flow China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd it is $18.43 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $22.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CSUAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.05, fair value $18.43, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSUAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.43). For China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd the two are $3.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd at about $110B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $22.05; our models calculate a fair value of $18.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSUAY?
Our models span a range for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd: cautious scenario $12.76, base $18.43, optimistic $25.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $22.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSUAY?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 10.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CSUAY?
The PEG ratio of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 10.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.7%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSUAY from its 52-week high?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd trades at $22.05, about 13% below its 52-week high of $25.40 and 19% above the low of $18.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $22.05, calculated fair value $18.43 (−16%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSUAY calculated?
We run China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.05. Our model-based fair value is $18.43, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($12.76 to $25.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd grew +9.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The market capitalisation of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is $110B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 2.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd are $1.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The dividend yield of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 9.1% (payout 131%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The net margin of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 17.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
The operating margin of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Revenue at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY)?
Earnings per share at China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (CSUAY) hold?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 67.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026