Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Centaurus Energy Inc stock C$2.26, price C$4.81, upside -53.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.8400 – C$10.00 · fair‑value band C$1.69 – C$2.82 · the C$4.81 price screens above the C$2.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Centaurus Energy Inc. does not have significant operations. Previously, it was engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Madalena Energy Inc. and changed its name to Centaurus Energy Inc. in September 2019.
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Centaurus Energy Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA) currently trades at C$4.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.26, 53.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of C$5.43 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the C$4.81 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$1.33, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$1.69 (bear) to C$2.82 (bull), the price of C$4.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2022: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2022.
Centaurus Energy Inc reported revenue of $10.0K in FY2025 versus $23.0M in FY2021, a compound −85.6%/yr. Reported net income was $125K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.2M (≈ $1.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 0.5 · P/S ratio 6.79 · EPS (TTM) C$3.68 · Return on equity 36.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.4% · Operating margin −28.2% · Revenue growth (YoY) +77.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 337% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, CTA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$1.69Fair Value C$2.26BullC$2.82
Price C$4.81 · Upside -53.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2022: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2022.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−90.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−81.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−81.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−52% → −5,360%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 34.0%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 266 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−53.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−28.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)77.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)0.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.36× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 97
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Centaurus Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTA.V
Frequently asked questions
Is Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.26 versus a price of C$4.81, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTA?
Our model-based fair value for Centaurus Energy Inc is C$2.26 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$4.81.
What is the quality score of CTA?
Centaurus Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.26 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1.69, optimistic scenario C$2.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centaurus Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.26, about −53% upside versus a price of C$4.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$1.69, optimistic scenario C$2.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centaurus Energy Inc it is C$2.26 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of C$4.81. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Centaurus Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CTA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$4.81, fair value C$2.26, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$4.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.26). For Centaurus Energy Inc the two are C$2.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centaurus Energy Inc worth?
The market values Centaurus Energy Inc at about C$2.2M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is C$4.81; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTA?
Our models span a range for Centaurus Energy Inc: cautious scenario C$1.69, base C$2.26, optimistic C$2.82 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price C$4.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTA?
Centaurus Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$2.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 36.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centaurus Energy Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 36.2%, debt of 2.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTA from its 52-week high?
Centaurus Energy Inc trades at C$4.81, about 5% below its 52-week high of C$5.08 and 337% above the low of C$1.10 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centaurus Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centaurus Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price C$4.81, calculated fair value C$2.26 (−53%), Quality Score 48/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTA calculated?
We run Centaurus Energy Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Centaurus Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was C$4.81. Our model-based fair value is C$2.26, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centaurus Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$2.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Centaurus Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
The market capitalisation of Centaurus Energy Inc is C$2.2M (≈ $1.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centaurus Energy Inc is 6.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Earnings per share at Centaurus Energy Inc are C$3.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centaurus Energy Inc is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centaurus Energy Inc is −20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
The operating margin of Centaurus Energy Inc is −28.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Revenue at Centaurus Energy Inc is growing +77.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −90.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA)?
Earnings per share at Centaurus Energy Inc are growing −11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA) generate?
The free cash flow of Centaurus Energy Inc is −$629K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Centaurus Energy Inc (CTA) carry?
The net debt of Centaurus Energy Inc is $4.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026