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Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Centaurus Energy Inc $1.61, price $1.25, upside +28.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Centaurus Energy Inc
CTARF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $1.61 · Undervalued (+28.8%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −79.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6252 – $9.65 · fair‑value band $1.21 – $2.01 · the $1.25 price screens below the $1.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Centaurus Energy Inc. does not have significant operations. Previously, it was engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Madalena Energy Inc. and changed its name to Centaurus Energy Inc. in September 2019. Centaurus Energy Inc.
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Centaurus Energy Inc. does not have significant operations. Previously, it was engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Madalena Energy Inc. and changed its name to Centaurus Energy Inc. in September 2019. Centaurus Energy Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF) currently trades at $1.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.61, implying the stock looks roughly 22.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.02 per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the $1.25 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.6900, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.21 (bear) to $2.01 (bull), the price of $1.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Centaurus Energy Inc reported revenue of $10.0K in FY2025 versus $23.0M in FY2021, a compound −85.6%/yr. Reported net income was $127K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5M · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −2.3% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.7% · Operating margin −60.7% · Revenue growth (YoY) +37.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 29%, CTARF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.21
Fair Value $1.61
Bull $2.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
n/a
$0.6900
>$2.76
73
Residual Income
$4.14
$3.89
$3.83
71
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.10
$1.58
$2.05
67
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
n/a
$0.6900
>$2.76
73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7800
$2.72
$3.66
64
Lynch FV
$0.6300
$0.9000
$1.17
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.6300
$0.9000
$1.17
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.21
$1.61
$2.01
63
P/S Multiple
$0.0100
$0.0100
$0.0100
58
P/B Multiple
$1.47
$1.96
$2.45
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.00
$4.02
$5.99
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.14
$3.89
$3.83
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.10
$1.58
$2.05
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
10
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
11/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−90.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−79.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −59.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−81.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−81.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → −5,454%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 58.8%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.61 versus a price of $1.25, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTARF?
Our model-based fair value for Centaurus Energy Inc is $1.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.25.
What is the quality score of CTARF?
Centaurus Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.21, optimistic scenario $2.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centaurus Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.61, about +29% upside versus a price of $1.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.21, optimistic scenario $2.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centaurus Energy Inc it is $1.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.25. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Centaurus Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTARF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.25, fair value $1.61, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTARF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.61). For Centaurus Energy Inc the two are $0.3600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centaurus Energy Inc worth?
The market values Centaurus Energy Inc at about $1.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.25; our models calculate a fair value of $1.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTARF?
Our models span a range for Centaurus Energy Inc: cautious scenario $1.21, base $1.61, optimistic $2.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centaurus Energy Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 2.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTARF from its 52-week high?
Centaurus Energy Inc trades at $1.25, about 60% below its 52-week high of $3.15 and 25% above the low of $1.00 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centaurus Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centaurus Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.25, calculated fair value $1.61 (+29%), Quality Score 45/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTARF calculated?
We run Centaurus Energy Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Centaurus Energy Inc currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $1.25. Our model-based fair value is $1.61, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centaurus Energy Inc right now?
Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Centaurus Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The market capitalisation of Centaurus Energy Inc is $1.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centaurus Energy Inc is 1.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Earnings per share at Centaurus Energy Inc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The net margin of Centaurus Energy Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centaurus Energy Inc is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centaurus Energy Inc is −16.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
The operating margin of Centaurus Energy Inc is −60.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Revenue at Centaurus Energy Inc is growing +37.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −90.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF)?
Earnings per share at Centaurus Energy Inc are growing −11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF) generate?
The free cash flow of Centaurus Energy Inc is −$640K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Centaurus Energy Inc (CTARF) carry?
The net debt of Centaurus Energy Inc is $4.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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