Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Close the Loop Ltd $0.10, price $0.04, upside +160.0%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Close the Loop Ltd engages in the collection and recycling of electronic equipment, imaging consumables, plastics, paper and cartons, and other related activities in Australia, Europe, South Africa, and the United States. It operates through Packaging and Resource Recovery segments.
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Close the Loop Ltd engages in the collection and recycling of electronic equipment, imaging consumables, plastics, paper and cartons, and other related activities in Australia, Europe, South Africa, and the United States. It operates through Packaging and Resource Recovery segments. The company take back, recovers, and reuse of complex waste streams, including cosmetics, imaging consumables, plastics, and paper and cartons. In addition, it provides flexible, carton, flexographic print, and seafood packaging, and bulk storage solutions. Additionally, the company supplies thermal paper and other paper products. Further, it offers asphalt additive under TonerPlas. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Oakleigh South, Australia.
Stock analysis
Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) currently trades at $0.0400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1040, implying the stock looks roughly 61.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.2100 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.0400 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0700, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0800 (bear) to $0.1360 (bull), the price of $0.0400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Close the Loop Ltd reported revenue of A$195M in FY2025 versus A$70.1M in FY2022, a compound +40.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$22.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $128M · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −11.4% · Return on equity −37.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 160%, CTLLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0800Fair Value $0.1040Bull $0.1360
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.4% (2022) → −7.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+160.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−27.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Close the Loop Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTLLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1040 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0400, about +160% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTLLF?
Our model-based fair value for Close the Loop Ltd is $0.1040 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.0400.
What is the quality score of CTLLF?
Close the Loop Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1040 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0800, optimistic scenario $0.1360. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Close the Loop Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1040, about +160% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0800, optimistic scenario $0.1360. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Close the Loop Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$197M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Close the Loop Ltd pay a dividend?
Close the Loop Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Close the Loop Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +40.7 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTLLF use?
Our models discount Close the Loop Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Close the Loop Ltd that is +37.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Close the Loop Ltd grew +40.7 % a year. The price currently implies +37.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Close the Loop Ltd (+37.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.97 %: that much free cash flow Close the Loop Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Close the Loop Ltd it is $0.1040 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.0400. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Close the Loop Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, CTLLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0400, fair value $0.1040, a gap of about +160% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTLLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1040). For Close the Loop Ltd the two are $0.0640 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Close the Loop Ltd worth?
The market values Close the Loop Ltd at about $128M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.0400; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1040 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTLLF?
Our models span a range for Close the Loop Ltd: cautious scenario $0.0800, base $0.1040, optimistic $0.1360 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.0400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTLLF?
Close the Loop Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.1040 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Close the Loop Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −37.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Close the Loop Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Close the Loop Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.0400, calculated fair value $0.1040 (+160%), Quality Score 20/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTLLF calculated?
We run Close the Loop Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1040, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Close the Loop Ltd currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.0400. Our model-based fair value is $0.1040, about +160% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Close the Loop Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (20/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Close the Loop Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The market capitalisation of Close the Loop Ltd is $128M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Close the Loop Ltd is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Earnings per share at Close the Loop Ltd are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The dividend yield of Close the Loop Ltd is 0.1% (payout 0.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The net margin of Close the Loop Ltd is −11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Close the Loop Ltd is −37.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Close the Loop Ltd is 2.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
The operating margin of Close the Loop Ltd is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF)?
Revenue at Close the Loop Ltd is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Close the Loop Ltd (CTLLF) carry?
The net debt of Close the Loop Ltd is A$53.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026