Ampol Limited (CTXAY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $5.6B
Ampol Limited
CTXAY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $6.44 to $6.61 (+2.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +19.6% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $33.07 – $54.42 · fair‑value band $4.96 – $8.26 · the $53.61 price screens above the $6.61 fair value. As of Jul 15, 2026.
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Ampol Limited (CTXAY) currently trades at $53.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.61, implying the stock looks roughly 87.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ampol Limited generated revenue of $31.4B at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at $4.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.96 (bear case) to $8.26 (bull case); at $53.61, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -88%, CTXAY screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments. The Fuels and Infrastructure segment wholesales fuels and lubricants, including Lytton refinery, trading and shipping, distribution, infrastructure, and energy solutions. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol's network of stores. The New Zealand segment include Z Energy that distributes fuel in New Zealand market. It also engages in EV charging and home electricity solutions business. The company distributes its products through depots, terminals, pipelines, and service station sites. It sells fuels to various customers in defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial and industrial sectors. The company was formerly known as Caltex Australia Limited and changed its name to Ampol Limited in May 2020. Ampol Limited was founded in …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ampol Limited reported revenue of $29.9B in FY2025 versus $20.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was $79.6M in FY2025, compounding −38.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- Is Ampol Limited - Unsponsored ADR (CTXAY) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
- KKR anchors A$400M private credit financing for Australia's Ampol
- KKR Leads A$400 Million Financing Solution for Ampol
- Has Ampol Limited - Unsponsored ADR (CTXAY) Outpaced Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,259 | ₹835.66 | -34% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $255.82 | $114.28 | -55% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $247.29 | $135.74 | -45% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $183.08 | $50.63 | -72% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €28.13 | €6.38 | -77% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 51.40 TWD | 20.61 TWD | -60% |
| ENEOS Holdings JXHLY | $15.55 | $17.72 | +14% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.26 | ₹394.34 | +185% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $65.84 | $52.19 | -21% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 100,200 KRW | 232,034 KRW | +132% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.