Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Castellum AB (publ) $9.26, price $11.48, upside -19.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.32 – $23.23 · fair‑value band $4.34 – $9.26 · the $11.48 price screens above the $9.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Castellum AB (publ) is one of the Nordic region's largest commercial property companies, with a focus on office and logistics properties in Nordic growth cities. As of 31 December 2025, the property value, including the holdings in the Norwegian company Entra ASA and Halvorsäng, totaled approximately SEK 137 Bn.
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Castellum AB (publ) is one of the Nordic region's largest commercial property companies, with a focus on office and logistics properties in Nordic growth cities. As of 31 December 2025, the property value, including the holdings in the Norwegian company Entra ASA and Halvorsäng, totaled approximately SEK 137 Bn. The company is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap and is classified as green under the Green Equity Designation. Castellum is the only Nordic property company included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI). Castellum AB (publ) is incorporated in Sweden.
Stock analysis
Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) currently trades at $11.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.26, 19.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.42 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the $11.48 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.15, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.34 (bear) to $9.26 (bull), the price of $11.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Castellum AB (publ) reported revenue of 9.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 6.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was 936M SEK in FY2025, compounding −47.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Revenue (TTM) 9.9B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −19%, CWQXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.34Fair Value $9.26Bull $9.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3705 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs 3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2016 to 2021 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.145% → 68%
2025 sits 281% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)22.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)21.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.4× · Pricier than median
P/B0.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.07× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF15.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Castellum AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWQXF
Frequently asked questions
Is Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.26 versus a price of $11.48, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWQXF?
Our model-based fair value for Castellum AB (publ) is $9.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.48.
What is the quality score of CWQXF?
Castellum AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.34, optimistic scenario $9.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Castellum AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.26, about −19% upside versus a price of $11.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.34, optimistic scenario $9.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Castellum AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Castellum AB (publ) it is $9.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.48. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Castellum AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CWQXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.48, fair value $9.26, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWQXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.26). For Castellum AB (publ) the two are $2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Castellum AB (publ) worth?
The market values Castellum AB (publ) at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.48; our models calculate a fair value of $9.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWQXF?
Our models span a range for Castellum AB (publ): cautious scenario $4.34, base $9.26, optimistic $9.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CWQXF?
Castellum AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Castellum AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWQXF from its 52-week high?
Castellum AB (publ) trades at $11.48, about 12% below its 52-week high of $13.08 and 5% above the low of $10.97 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Castellum AB (publ)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Castellum AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.48, calculated fair value $9.26 (−19%), Quality Score 60/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWQXF calculated?
We run Castellum AB (publ) through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Castellum AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.48. Our model-based fair value is $9.26, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Castellum AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.34 to $9.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) come from?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB (publ) grew −7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin −5.7 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Castellum AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
The market capitalisation of Castellum AB (publ) is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Castellum AB (publ) is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB (publ) are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
The net margin of Castellum AB (publ) is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Castellum AB (publ) is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Castellum AB (publ) is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF)?
Earnings per share at Castellum AB (publ) are growing +654% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) generate?
The free cash flow of Castellum AB (publ) is 4.0B SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Castellum AB (publ) (CWQXF) carry?
The net debt of Castellum AB (publ) is 69.1B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026