Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd A$1.46, price A$2.68, upside -45.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.12 – A$3.00 · fair‑value band A$0.6800 – A$1.84 · the A$2.68 price screens above the A$1.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Cleanaway Waste Management Limited provides waste management, industrial, and environmental services in Australia.
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Cleanaway Waste Management Limited provides waste management, industrial, and environmental services in Australia. It engages in the collection, recovery, and disposal of solid waste, including putrescible waste, inert waste, household waste and recovered waste processed through the resource recovery and recycling facilities, transfer stations, and landfills; and provision of safe treatment and disposal of health-related waste services, including sharps management, medical and pharmaceutical waste, and healthcare hazardous waste and quarantine waste to the health sector. The company also collects, treats, processes, refines, recycles, and destructs hazardous and non-hazardous liquids, hydrocarbons and chemical waste, specialized product destruction, and hazardous waste; and offers various services, such as vacuum loading, high pressure cleaning, pipeline maintenance, and non-destructive digging to the resources, oil and gas, infrastructure, and industrial markets. In addition, it offers commercial and industrial, municipal, and residential collection services, including general waste, recyclables, construction, and demolition waste, as well as medical and washroom services; owns and manages waste transfer stations, resource recovery and recycling facilities, secure product destruction, quarantine treatment operations and landfills; and sells recovered paper, cardboard, metals, and plastics. Further, the company collects, treats, processes, and recycles industrial waste, grease trap waste, oily water, and used mineral and cooking oils; provides industrial cleaning, vacuum tanker loading, site remediation, sludge management, parts washing, and high pressure cleaning services; refines and recycles used mineral oils to produce fuel and base oils; and generates and sells electricity. Cleanaway Waste Management Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) currently trades at A$2.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.46, implying the stock looks roughly 83.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$1.34 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$2.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.6200, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.6800 (bear) to A$1.84 (bull), the price of A$2.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2025 versus A$2.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$157M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.0B (≈ $4.2B) · P/E ratio 53.6 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −46%, CWY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.6800Fair Value A$1.46Bull A$1.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.8% a year for the price and +6.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (58 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)53.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.38× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF34.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.56× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)69· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)49· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.46 versus a price of A$2.68, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWY?
Our model-based fair value for Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is A$1.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.68.
What is the quality score of CWY?
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.6800, optimistic scenario A$1.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.46, about −46% upside versus a price of A$2.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.6800, optimistic scenario A$1.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd pay a dividend?
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CWY use?
Our models discount Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd it is A$1.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$2.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CWY trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.68, fair value A$1.46, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.46). For Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd the two are A$1.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd worth?
The market values Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd at about A$6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$2.68; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWY?
Our models span a range for Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.6800, base A$1.46, optimistic A$1.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$2.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CWY?
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CWY?
The PEG ratio of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWY from its 52-week high?
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd trades at A$2.68, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$2.91 and 24% above the low of A$2.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$2.68, calculated fair value A$1.46 (−46%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWY calculated?
We run Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$2.68. Our model-based fair value is A$1.46, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.6800 to A$1.84). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The market capitalisation of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is A$6.0B (≈ $4.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 2.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Earnings per share at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The dividend yield of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 2.4% (payout 131%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The net margin of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
The operating margin of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Revenue at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is growing +13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY)?
Earnings per share at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd are growing −49.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) carry?
The net debt of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd is A$1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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