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Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Core Lithium Ltd A$0.05, price A$0.36, upside -85.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000CXO2

CL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Core Lithium Ltd

CXO · AU

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value A$0.0500 · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
!Quality 59/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +375.8 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/5)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.87 A$0.0570 Fair Value A$0.0500 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0570 – A$1.87 · fair‑value band A$0.0400 – A$0.0700 · the A$0.3550 price screens above the A$0.0500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Core Lithium Ltd engages in the development of lithium and various metal deposits in Northern Territory and South Australia. It primarily explores for gold, silver, uranium, lead, zinc, rare earth elements, and base metals. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) currently trades at A$0.3550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 610.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0400 (bear) to A$0.0700 (bull), the price of A$0.3550 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Core Lithium Ltd reported revenue of −A$2.4M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$23.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.2B (≈ $852M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% · Operating margin 921% · Revenue (TTM) −A$2.4M · Free cash flow −A$63.3M · Net cash A$20.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 238% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −86%, CXO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0400 Fair Value A$0.0500 Bull A$0.0700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 29
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+274.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+375.8%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+220.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,968.9% (2019) → −37.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CXO screens 610% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.64× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Boliden AB BOL kr 539.40 kr 464.47 −14%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%

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Core Lithium Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0500 −610%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Core Lithium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CXO

Frequently asked questions

Is Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0500 versus a price of A$0.3550, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CXO?
Our model-based fair value for Core Lithium Ltd is A$0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3550.
What is the quality score of CXO?
Core Lithium Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0400, optimistic scenario A$0.0700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Core Lithium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0500, about −86% upside versus a price of A$0.3550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0400, optimistic scenario A$0.0700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Core Lithium Ltd it is A$0.0500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.3550. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Core Lithium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CXO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3550, fair value A$0.0500, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0500). For Core Lithium Ltd the two are A$0.3050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Core Lithium Ltd worth?
The market values Core Lithium Ltd at about A$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CXO?
Our models span a range for Core Lithium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0400, base A$0.0500, optimistic A$0.0700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.3550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Core Lithium Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −10.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CXO from its 52-week high?
Core Lithium Ltd trades at A$0.3550, about 15% below its 52-week high of A$0.4200 and 238% above the low of A$0.1050 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Core Lithium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Core Lithium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.3550, calculated fair value A$0.0500 (−86%), Quality Score 59/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CXO calculated?
We run Core Lithium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Core Lithium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.3550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0500, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Core Lithium Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Core Lithium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
The market capitalisation of Core Lithium Ltd is A$1.2B (≈ $852M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
Earnings per share at Core Lithium Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Core Lithium Ltd is −10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Core Lithium Ltd is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Core Lithium Ltd (CXO)?
The operating margin of Core Lithium Ltd is 921% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) generate?
Core Lithium Ltd generates revenue of −A$2.4M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How much free cash flow does Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) generate?
The free cash flow of Core Lithium Ltd is −A$63.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Core Lithium Ltd (CXO) hold?
Core Lithium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$20.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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