DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED $4.19, price $3.40, upside +23.2%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.56 – $4.57 · fair‑value band $3.12 – $5.24 · the $3.40 price screens below the $4.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail business in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
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DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail business in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It operates through six segments: Health and Beauty, Convenience, Food, Home Furnishings, Restaurants, and Other Retailing. The company is involved in the operation of health and beauty stores under the Mannings and Guardian brands; convenience stores under the 7-Eleven brand; food and grocery stores under the Wellcome, Market Place, Oliver's, 3hreesixty, San Miu, Lucky, and Cold Storage brands; home furnishings stores under the IKEA brand; restaurants under the Maxim's, COVA, Genki Sushi, Shake Shack, Starbucks Coffee, and The Cheesecake Factory brands; and department, specialty, and DIY stores under the Robinson Retail brand. It also engages in property and food processing retail under the Meadows, Giant, Yu Pin King, Vitapet, and Mannings Guardian brands; and customer loyalty programme services under the yuu brand. The company was formerly known as Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited and changed its name to DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited in May 2022. DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1886 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.
Stock analysis
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) currently trades at $3.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.19, implying the stock looks roughly 18.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.77 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.6500, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.12 (bear) to $5.24 (bull), the price of $3.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED reported revenue of $8.9B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $270M in FY2025, compounding +27.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.2900 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 91.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 23%, D01 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.12Fair Value $4.19Bull $5.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0927 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 132% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.7% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (26 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+23.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)91.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/D01
Frequently asked questions
Is DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.19 versus a price of $3.40, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of D01?
Our model-based fair value for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is $4.19 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.40.
What is the quality score of D01?
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.19 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $5.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.19, about +23% upside versus a price of $3.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $5.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED pay a dividend?
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by -24.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of D01 use?
Our models discount DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED that is -24.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED grew -2.9 % a year. The price currently implies -24.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (-24.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.46 %: that much free cash flow DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED it is $4.19 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $3.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, D01 trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.40, fair value $4.19, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of D01?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.19). For DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED worth?
The market values DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $3.40; our models calculate a fair value of $4.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about D01?
Our models span a range for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED: cautious scenario $3.12, base $4.19, optimistic $5.24 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $3.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of D01?
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 16.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of D01?
The PEG ratio of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Balance-sheet figures for DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 91.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is D01 from its 52-week high?
DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at $3.40, about 26% below its 52-week high of $4.57 and 10% above the low of $3.10 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $3.40, calculated fair value $4.19 (+23%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of D01 calculated?
We run DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $3.40. Our model-based fair value is $4.19, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The market capitalisation of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Earnings per share at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED are $0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The dividend yield of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 4.9% (payout 57.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The net margin of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 91.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
The operating margin of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Revenue at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01)?
Earnings per share at DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (D01) carry?
The net debt of DFI RETAIL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is $468M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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