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Deutsche Börse AG (DBOEY) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $50.7B

DB Deutsche Börse AG logo Deutsche Börse AG DBOEY · US
Price$31.68
Fair Value$15.56
Upside-50.9%
Quality65/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 27.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.70% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/15)
Wide moat 84/100
Evidence: High Range $11.67 – $35.65 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 26, 2026, revised from $15.59 to $15.56 (−0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +8.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($11.67 to $35.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$32.18 $13.54 Fair Value $15.56 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.54 – $32.18 · fair‑value band $11.67 – $35.65 · the $31.68 price screens above the $15.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Deutsche Börse AG (DBOEY) currently trades at $31.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.56, implying the stock looks roughly 50.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Börse AG generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 27.3%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.67 (bear case) to $35.65 (bull case); at $31.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -51%, DBOEY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $16.20 $28.60 $48.99 80
Residual Income $6.92 $9.00 $27.27 76
Rev-Margin DCF $7.70 $12.41 $18.36 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $14.09 $25.67 $45.04 31
5Y P/E Exit $10.39 $17.66 $25.62 38
10Y P/E Exit $12.23 $19.35 $28.72 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.16 $29.82 $40.66 54
Lynch FV $7.54 $10.78 $14.01 50
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.55 $7.39 $11.73 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.55 $6.23 $7.76 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.26 $13.68 $17.10 63
P/B Multiple $6.52 $8.69 $10.87 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.10 $4.16 $6.21 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $16.20 $28.60 $48.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF $7.70 $12.41 $18.36 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.92 $9.00 $27.27 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.35) versus Asset-Based ($4.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $7.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.5%
Net margin 27.3%
Return on equity 19.2%
Free cash flow $2.6B FY2025
P/E ratio 21.4
More key figures
Operating margin 43.6%
EPS (TTM) $1.30
Dividend yield 1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.2%
Net debt $6.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Deutsche Börse AG operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Investment Management Solutions, Trading & Clearing, Fund Services, and Securities Services.

Full company description

Deutsche Börse AG operates as an international exchange organization in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates through four segments: Investment Management Solutions, Trading & Clearing, Fund Services, and Securities Services. The Investment Management Solutions segment offers financial data, analytics, and software-as-a-service solutions including research, data collection, data analysis, and the provision of indices, analytics and investment management software to institutional investors, banks, and corporate clients. The Trading & Clearing segment engages in the development and operation of markets and trading systems for securities, derivatives, commodities, currencies, digital assets, and other asset classes. This segment handles settlement of transactions through clearing houses. Its Fund Services segment provides infrastructure and services for fund processing, including order routing, settlement, custody, data and distribution support for investment funds. The Securities Services segment offers various services for securities issuance, settlement, custody as well as collateral, securities lending, and liquidity management. The company was founded in 1585 and is headquartered in Eschborn, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Deutsche Börse AG reported revenue of $7.1B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$7.1B
Latest YoY
+1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+10.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y)
+9.3%
Revenue +13.0%/yr
FY21 $4.4B
FY22 $5.2B
FY23 $6.1B
FY24 $7.0B
FY25 $7.1B
Net income +12.2%/yr
FY21 $1.2B
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 $1.7B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $1.9B

DBOEY screens 51% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Börse AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DBOEY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.72× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 43 · sector 69
PAST 77 · sector 77
HEALTH 78 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 34 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
S&P Global Inc SPGI $450.84 $196.36 -56%
CME Group CME $245.05 $145.51 -41%
Moody's Corporation MCO $504.46 $194.82 -61%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE $139.65 $75.95 -46%
Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ $88.08 $41.12 -53%
MSCI Inc MSCI $604.71 $214.91 -64%
Coinbase Global, Inc COIN $160.49 $57.05 -64%
Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE $273.41 $136.64 -50%
Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 ¥215.56 ¥55.36 -74%
Singapore Exchange Limited S68 23.88 SGD 7.88 SGD -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Deutsche Börse AG (DBOEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.56 versus a price of $31.68, about −51% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DBOEY?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Börse AG is $15.56 (as of Jul 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $31.68.
What is the quality score of DBOEY?
Deutsche Börse AG has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Börse AG (DBOEY)?
Deutsche Börse AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5B (latest available figure, as of Jul 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DBOEY?
The net profit margin of Deutsche Börse AG is about 27.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Deutsche Börse AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Börse AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.70% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 26, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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