Deere & Company (DCO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €141B · ISIN US2441991054

What is Deere & Company really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€387.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide (€105.52 to €387.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €267.04 – €600.20 · fair‑value band €105.52 – €387.74 · the €600.20 price screens above the €161.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

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Analysis

Deere & Company (DCO) currently trades at €600.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €161.80, implying the stock looks roughly 270.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €348.31 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €600.20 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €64.41, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Deere & Company generated revenue of €47.3B at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue declined 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.4%. Net debt stands at €55.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €105.52 (bear case) to €387.74 (bull case); at €600.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −73%, DCO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 10 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €7.64 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€348.31) versus Asset-Based (€64.41). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.

Full company description

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Deere & Company reported revenue of $45.7B in FY2025 versus $43.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.

DCO screens 271% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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