Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Daikin Industries Ltd stock $13.93, price $13.47, upside +3.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.16 – $22.38 · fair‑value band $10.43 – $17.41 · the $13.47 price screens below the $13.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Daikin Industries,Ltd. manufactures, distributes, and sells air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment, and chemical products in Japan, the Americas, China, Asia, Europe, Europe, and internationally.
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It offers air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment products, such as split/multi-split typeair conditioners, unitary, air to water heat pump systems, heating systems, air purifiers, skyair, multi-split type air conditioners, ventilations, control systems, packaged air-conditioning systems, air cooled chillers, water cooled chillers, rooftops, air side equipment, refrigeration, containers, marine HVAC, and air filters.
The company's chemical products comprises fluoropolymers, fluoropolymers coatings, additives, films, anti-smudge coating, coating resin, fluorinated oil, refrigerants, fluorinated liquids, etching agents, battery materials, fine chemicals and intermediates, optical adhesive, fluorocarbons, fluoroplastics, fluoroelastomers, fluoropaints, fluoro coating agents, semiconductor-etching products, and water and oil repellent agents.
It also provides oil hydraulics products, including oil hydraulic pumps and valves, cooling equipment and systems, inverter hydraulic power units, hydrostatic transmissions. In addition, the company offers after sales services.
It serves automotive, semiconductor manufacturing, electronics, energy solutions, home and living, building and construction, oil and gas, aerospace, and life sciences industries. Daikin Industries, Ltd. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) currently trades at $13.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.93, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.63 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $13.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.63, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.43 (bear) to $17.41 (bull), the price of $13.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥5.3T in FY2026 versus ¥3.1T in FY2022, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥292B in FY2026, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $39.5B Large · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 3%, DKILY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.43Fair Value $13.93Bull$17.41
Price $13.47 · Upside +3.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3443 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.3% vs 7.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Expansion into IoT and AI-based factory solutions supports energy efficiency, yet core HVAC margins face ongoing pressure from higher costs as the main weak point.
Main risk: Higher costs continue to pressure margins in the core HVAC segment and could constrain overall profitability if new capabilities remain a smaller side effort.
Daikin is expanding its factory solutions business through a recent investment in an IoT and AI-based equipment inspection provider. This move supports energy efficiency goals but comes as core HVAC margins face some pressure from higher costs. Will the new capabilities strengthen the overall model enough to offset traditional segment challenges, or will they remain a smaller side effort?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.6% · Above median
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.93 versus a price of $13.47, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DKILY?
Our model-based fair value for Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is $13.93 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.47.
What is the quality score of DKILY?
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.93 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.43, optimistic scenario $17.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Daikin Industries Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.93, about +3% upside versus a price of $13.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.43, optimistic scenario $17.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥5.2T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Daikin Industries Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.58% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Daikin Industries Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DKILY use?
Our models discount Daikin Industries Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Daikin Industries Ltd ADR that is +7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Daikin Industries Ltd ADR grew +16.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Daikin Industries Ltd ADR (+7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.39 %: that much free cash flow Daikin Industries Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Daikin Industries Ltd ADR it is $13.93 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $13.47. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Daikin Industries Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, DKILY trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.47, fair value $13.93, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DKILY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.93). For Daikin Industries Ltd ADR the two are $0.4600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Daikin Industries Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Daikin Industries Ltd ADR at about $39.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $13.47; our models calculate a fair value of $13.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DKILY?
Our models span a range for Daikin Industries Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $10.43, base $13.93, optimistic $17.41 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $13.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DKILY?
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DKILY?
The PEG ratio of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Daikin Industries Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DKILY from its 52-week high?
Daikin Industries Ltd ADR trades at $13.47, about 17% below its 52-week high of $16.19 and 31% above the low of $10.29 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Daikin Industries Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Daikin Industries Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $13.47, calculated fair value $13.93 (+3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DKILY calculated?
We run Daikin Industries Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Daikin Industries Ltd ADR currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $13.47. Our model-based fair value is $13.93, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Daikin Industries Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) come from?
Earnings per share at Daikin Industries Ltd ADR grew +7.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The market capitalisation of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is $39.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Earnings per share at Daikin Industries Ltd ADR are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The dividend yield of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 1.6% (payout 34.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The net margin of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 5.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
The operating margin of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Revenue at Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY)?
Earnings per share at Daikin Industries Ltd ADR are growing +2.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Daikin Industries Ltd (DKILY) carry?
The net debt of Daikin Industries Ltd ADR is ¥162B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026