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Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Denali Therapeutics Inc $4.81, price $19.45, upside -75.3%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US24823R1059

DT Denali Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Oct 6, 2026

Denali Therapeutics Inc

DNLI · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.7 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $4.81 · Strongly overvalued (−75.3%)
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/5)
Narrow moat 10/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$72.24 $11.47 Fair Value $4.81 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.47 – $72.24 · fair‑value band $3.18 – $6.02 · the $19.45 price screens above the $4.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Denali Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapeutics to treat neurodegenerative and lysosomal storage diseases.

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Denali Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapeutics to treat neurodegenerative and lysosomal storage diseases. The company develops Eclitasertib (SAR443122/DNL758) RIPK1 inhibitor program for peripheral inflammatory diseases; BIIB122/DNL151 LRRK2 inhibitor program for Parkinson's disease; TAK-594/DNL593 program for frontotemporal dementia-granulin; DNL126 program for MPS IIIA (Sanfilippo Syndrome A); and DNL310 Tividenofusp alfa, an enzyme replacement therapy program for MPS II (Hunter Syndrome). Its Enzyme TransportVehicle (TV) programs include DNL952 for the treatment of Pompe disease; DNL111 for Parkinson's and Gaucher diseases; and DNL622 for Hurler syndrome (MPS I). The company's OTV programs also comprise DNL628 targeting tau for Alzheimer's disease; and DNL422 targeting alpha synuclein for Parkinson's disease, as well as antibody TV program includes DNL921 targeting Abeta for treating Alzheimer's disease. The company was formerly known as SPR Pharma Inc. and changed its name to Denali Therapeutics Inc. in March 2015. Denali Therapeutics Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) currently trades at $19.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.81, 75.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $3.18 (bear) to $6.02 (bull), the price of $19.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Denali Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $48.7M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$513M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.6B · EPS (TTM) $−2.84 · Return on equity −54.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.1% · Operating margin −3,601% · Revenue (TTM) $3.6M · Free cash flow −$422M · Net cash $163M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −75%, DNLI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.18 Fair Value $4.81 Bull $6.02
Price $19.45 · Upside -75.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.17 $4.25 $6.34 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.17 $4.25 $6.34 51

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 6
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+204.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.9% (2018) → −59.5% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DNLI screens overvalued: fair value 75% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Denali Therapeutics Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 587 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −75.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −29.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.59× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $735.20 $1,275 +73% vs DNLI
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $504.73 $555.20 +10% vs DNLI
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,219,000 KRW 1,340,900 KRW +10% vs DNLI
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10% vs DNLI
CSL Limited CSL A$181.46 A$179.90 −1% vs DNLI
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4% vs DNLI
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15% vs DNLI
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22% vs DNLI
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58% vs DNLI
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67% vs DNLI

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Denali Therapeutics Inc · Fair Value
$4.81 −75%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Denali Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DNLI

Frequently asked questions

Is Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.81 versus a price of $19.45, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNLI?
Our model-based fair value for Denali Therapeutics Inc is $4.81 (as of Oct 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.45.
What is the quality score of DNLI?
Denali Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.81 (as of Oct 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Denali Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.81, about −75% upside versus a price of $19.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $6.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
Denali Therapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Denali Therapeutics Inc it is $4.81 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026), against a price of $19.45. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Denali Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 6, 2026, DNLI trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.45, fair value $4.81, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.81). For Denali Therapeutics Inc the two are $14.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Denali Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Denali Therapeutics Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 6, 2026). Per share that is $19.45; our models calculate a fair value of $4.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNLI?
Our models span a range for Denali Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $3.18, base $4.81, optimistic $6.02 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026, price $19.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Denali Therapeutics Inc (as of Oct 6, 2026): return on equity −54.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNLI from its 52-week high?
Denali Therapeutics Inc trades at $19.45, about 29% below its 52-week high of $27.21 and 35% above the low of $14.41 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Denali Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Denali Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 6, 2026: price $19.45, calculated fair value $4.81 (−75%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNLI calculated?
We run Denali Therapeutics Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Denali Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was $19.45. Our model-based fair value is $4.81, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Denali Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.18 to $6.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Denali Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
The market capitalisation of Denali Therapeutics Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
Earnings per share at Denali Therapeutics Inc are $−2.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Denali Therapeutics Inc is −54.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Denali Therapeutics Inc is −29.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI)?
The operating margin of Denali Therapeutics Inc is −3,601% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) generate?
The free cash flow of Denali Therapeutics Inc is −$422M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) hold?
Denali Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $163M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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