Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.2B
Denali Therapeutics Inc
DNLI · US
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Share price +7.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 414% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.20 to $6.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.47 – $78.44 · fair‑value band $3.20 – $6.06 · the $24.93 price screens above the $4.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Denali Therapeutics Inc (DNLI) currently trades at $24.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 80.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -49.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $163M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.20 (bear case) to $6.06 (bull case); at $24.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -81%, DNLI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Denali Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapeutics to treat neurodegenerative and lysosomal storage diseases.
Full company description
Denali Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops therapeutics to treat neurodegenerative and lysosomal storage diseases. The company develops Eclitasertib (SAR443122/DNL758) RIPK1 inhibitor program for peripheral inflammatory diseases; BIIB122/DNL151 LRRK2 inhibitor program for Parkinson's disease; TAK-594/DNL593 program for frontotemporal dementia-granulin; DNL126 program for MPS IIIA (Sanfilippo Syndrome A); and DNL310 Tividenofusp alfa, an enzyme replacement therapy program for MPS II (Hunter Syndrome). Its Enzyme TransportVehicle (TV) programs include DNL952 for the treatment of Pompe disease; DNL111 for Parkinson's and Gaucher diseases; and DNL622 for Hurler syndrome (MPS I). The company's OTV programs also comprise DNL628 targeting tau for Alzheimer's disease; and DNL422 targeting alpha synuclein for Parkinson's disease, as well as antibody TV program includes DNL921 targeting Abeta for treating Alzheimer's disease. The company was formerly known as SPR Pharma Inc. and changed its name to Denali Therapeutics Inc. in March 2015. Denali Therapeutics Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Denali Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $48.7M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$513M in FY2025.
DNLI screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- DNLI Q2 Loss Narrows, Avlayah Sales Drive Strong Launch Momentum
- Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Reports Q2 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates
- Denali Therapeutics Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Business Highlights
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 634 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | -67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | -77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | -60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | -69% |
| Moderna, Inc MRNA | $63.67 | $12.77 | -80% |
| BioNTech SE 22UA | €80.60 | €52.92 | -34% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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