Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Dorma Kaba Holding AG CHF 46.34, price CHF 61.80, upside -25.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 29.27 – CHF 78.64 · fair‑value band CHF 28.33 – CHF 68.05 · the CHF 61.80 price screens above the CHF 46.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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dormakaba Holding AG provides access and security solutions worldwide.
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dormakaba Holding AG provides access and security solutions worldwide. It offers door hardware products, including door closers, locks, fittings, emergency exits, and panic hardware; interior glass systems comprising manual sliding, manual single and double action door, fittings for glass assemblies, and horizontal sliding walls; and entrance systems, such as swing operators, automatic sliding doors, sliding door operators, revolving doors, security revolving doors and interlocks, sensor barriers and speed gates, and turnstiles. The company also provides mechanical key systems, including cylinder locks with reversible keys; electronic access and data comprising electronic cylinders, electronic door locks, digital door locks, card readers and peripherals, and time and attendance; lodging systems that include access management systems, electronic hotel locks, and perimeter access; and safe locks under the Axessor Appex Series, Axxesor, Paxos, Cencon, CenconX, Auditcon, LA GARD electronic, Mauer electronic, Mauer mechanical, LA GARD mechanical, X-0 series brands. In addition, it offers access control, accessibility, fire protection, hygiene and infection prevention, mobile access, people flow and security, touch-free access, and automatic door systems solutions. The company serves the airport, healthcare, hospitality, multihousing, office, residential, and utilities industries. dormakaba Holding AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Rümlang, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) currently trades at CHF 61.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 46.34, 25.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 52.35 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 61.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 5.48, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 28.33 (bear) to CHF 68.05 (bull), the price of CHF 61.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dorma Kaba Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 2.8B in FY2026 versus CHF 2.8B in FY2022, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 97.0M in FY2026, compounding +49.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 2.6B · P/E ratio 26.9 · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) CHF 2.30 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 40.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −25%, DOKA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 28.33Fair Value CHF 46.34Bull CHF 68.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.3477 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.9% vs −1.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
2026 sits 112% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.3% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−25.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)40.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.9× · Pricier than median
P/B7.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.78× · Pricier than median
P/FCF16.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.8× · Pricier than median
PEG3.56× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dorma Kaba Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DOKA
Frequently asked questions
Is Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 46.34 versus a price of CHF 61.80, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DOKA?
Our model-based fair value for Dorma Kaba Holding AG is CHF 46.34 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 61.80.
What is the quality score of DOKA?
Dorma Kaba Holding AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 46.34 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 28.33, optimistic scenario CHF 68.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dorma Kaba Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 46.34, about −25% upside versus a price of CHF 61.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 28.33, optimistic scenario CHF 68.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Dorma Kaba Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Dorma Kaba Holding AG pay a dividend?
Dorma Kaba Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dorma Kaba Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DOKA use?
Our models discount Dorma Kaba Holding AG at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dorma Kaba Holding AG that is +6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dorma Kaba Holding AG grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dorma Kaba Holding AG (+6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.17 %: that much free cash flow Dorma Kaba Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dorma Kaba Holding AG it is CHF 46.34 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of CHF 61.80. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dorma Kaba Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, DOKA trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 61.80, fair value CHF 46.34, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 61.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 46.34). For Dorma Kaba Holding AG the two are CHF 15.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dorma Kaba Holding AG worth?
The market values Dorma Kaba Holding AG at about CHF 2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is CHF 61.80; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 46.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOKA?
Our models span a range for Dorma Kaba Holding AG: cautious scenario CHF 28.33, base CHF 46.34, optimistic CHF 68.05 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price CHF 61.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DOKA?
Dorma Kaba Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.9 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 46.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 7.7, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
What is the PEG ratio of DOKA?
The PEG ratio of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 3.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dorma Kaba Holding AG (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 40.0%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOKA from its 52-week high?
Dorma Kaba Holding AG trades at CHF 61.80, about 14% below its 52-week high of CHF 71.64 and 28% above the low of CHF 48.20 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 46.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dorma Kaba Holding AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dorma Kaba Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price CHF 61.80, calculated fair value CHF 46.34 (−25%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOKA calculated?
We run Dorma Kaba Holding AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 46.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Dorma Kaba Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was CHF 61.80. Our model-based fair value is CHF 46.34, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dorma Kaba Holding AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 28.33 to CHF 68.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) come from?
Earnings per share at Dorma Kaba Holding AG grew −1.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dorma Kaba Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The market capitalisation of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is CHF 2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 0.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Earnings per share at Dorma Kaba Holding AG are CHF 2.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The dividend yield of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 1.5% (payout 41.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The net margin of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 3.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 40.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
The operating margin of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Revenue at Dorma Kaba Holding AG is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA)?
Earnings per share at Dorma Kaba Holding AG are growing +18.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dorma Kaba Holding AG (DOKA) carry?
The net debt of Dorma Kaba Holding AG is CHF 353M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026