Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.3B
Distribution Solutions Group
DSGR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $5.63 to $3.79 (−32.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +29.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.01 – $40.85 · fair‑value band $2.85 – $4.74 · the $34.88 price screens above the $3.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) currently trades at $34.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.79, implying the stock looks roughly 89.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Distribution Solutions Group generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue grew 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at $757M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.85 (bear case) to $4.74 (bull case); at $34.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -89%, DSGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($85.04) versus Economic Profit ($0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a specialty distribution company, provides value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), original equipment manufacturer, and industrial technology markets. It operates through four segments: Lawson, TestEquity, Gexpro Services, and Canada Branch Division.
Full company description
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a specialty distribution company, provides value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), original equipment manufacturer, and industrial technology markets. It operates through four segments: Lawson, TestEquity, Gexpro Services, and Canada Branch Division. The Lawson segment distributes specialty products and services to the industrial, commercial, institutional, and government MRO marketplace. The TestEquity segment distributes test and measurement equipment and solutions, industrial and electronic production supplies, and vendor managed inventory programs, as well as converting, fabrication, and adhesive solutions to the aerospace and defense, wireless and communication, semiconductors, industrial electronics and automotive, and electronics manufacturing industries under the TestEquity, Hisco, Techni-Pro, Techni-Tool, and Jensen Tools brands. The Gexpro Services segment provides supply chain management solutions that offer VMI, kitting, global logistics management, manufacturing localization and import expertise, value engineering and quality assurance to renewables, industrial power, consumer and industrial, technology, transportation, and aerospace and defense. The Canada Branch Division distributes industrial MRO supplies, safety products, fasteners, power tools, and related value-add services to the industrial, government, commercial, and residential contractor markets for the Canadian MRO market. The company distributes MRO products to its customers through a network of sales representatives. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Pacific Rim, Latin America, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Lawson Products, Inc. and has changed to Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. 2022. Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Distribution Solutions Group reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $520M in FY2021, a compound +39.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.3M in FY2025.
DSGR screens 89% overvalued. Compare with W.W. Grainger, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BRODSKY & SMITH SHAREHOLDER UPDATE: Notifying Investors of the Following Investigations: Personalis, Inc. (Nasdaq – PSNL), Distribution
- Distribution Solutions Group Announces Controller Buyout; Julie & Holleman Investigating Whether Minority Shareholders Are Receiving Fai
- BRODSKY & SMITH SHAREHOLDER UPDATE: Notifying Investors of the Following Investigations: AtaiBeckley Inc. (Nasdaq – ATAI), Distribution
- Distribution Solutions Agrees To Take-private Deal With LKCM Headwater, Stock Up In Pre-Market
Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,376 | $625.61 | -55% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $45.49 | $20.64 | -55% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $232.02 | $151.92 | -35% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $326.71 | $213.01 | -35% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $385.16 | $268.10 | -30% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$232.22 | C$127.90 | -45% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $329.35 | $191.65 | -42% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$102.50 | C$76.38 | -25% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 329.20 | kr 156.35 | -53% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $44.66 | $49.47 | +11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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