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Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited stock ₹3.44, price ₹1.36, upside +152.9%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 12, 2026
Thin data
Oct 12, 2026
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited
DUCON · BSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
The stock costs 60% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value ₹3.44 · Strongly undervalued (+152.9%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.2 %/yr in INR)
Thin margins · 2.4% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 36/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹1.24 – ₹28.37 · fair‑value band ₹2.30 – ₹3.95 · the ₹1.36 price screens below the ₹3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
Company profile
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited, a diversified technology company, provides solutions in the field of infrastructure, flue gas desulphurization (FGD) systems, and material handling systems in India.
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The company offers limestone, seawater, and dry sorbet injection type FGD systems for coal, HFO, and pet coke fired power boilers; and executes projects in rural electrification, industrial environmental control, and bulk material handling areas.
It also provides IT consulting services, such as IT distribution, procurement outsourcing solutions, security surveillance system, servers, storages, and energy management systems, as well as marketing and branding services.
The company was formerly known as Dynacons Technologies Limited and changed its name to Ducon Infratechnologies Limited May 2016. Ducon Infratechnologies Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Thane, India.
Stock analysis
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) currently trades at ₹1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹3.44, implying the stock looks roughly 60.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹3.88 per share, and 22 of the 22 models we run sit above the ₹1.36 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹2.24, and 0 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹2.30 (bear) to ₹3.95 (bull), the price of ₹1.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited reported revenue of ₹4.2B in FY2025 versus ₹3.8B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹110M in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹782M (≈ $8.2M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.2200 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 153%, DUCON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹2.30
Fair Value ₹3.44
Bull ₹3.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.1766 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF
₹1.82
₹2.30
₹3.09
82
Growth DCF
₹1.87
₹2.32
₹3.01
80
Owner Earnings
₹1.89
₹2.39
₹3.21
78
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹1.82
₹2.30
₹3.09
82
Owner Earnings
₹1.89
₹2.39
₹3.21
78
5Y Revenue Exit
₹2.87
₹4.37
₹6.53
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
₹2.87
₹4.37
₹6.33
75
5Y P/E Exit
₹2.26
₹3.33
₹4.59
71
10Y Revenue Exit
₹2.30
₹3.44
₹4.76
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
₹2.39
₹3.44
₹4.65
69
10Y P/E Exit
₹2.05
₹2.82
₹3.62
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹1.30
₹2.26
₹2.78
66
EPV
₹3.03
₹3.43
₹3.75
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹3.01
₹4.01
₹5.02
63
P/S Multiple
₹2.44
₹3.25
₹4.06
58
P/B Multiple
₹9.75
₹13.00
₹16.25
55
EV/EBIT
₹3.77
₹5.63
₹7.49
65
EV/EBITDA
₹2.46
₹3.88
₹5.31
66
EV/Revenue
₹2.17
₹3.88
₹5.59
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹1.73
₹2.62
₹3.27
55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹1.87
₹2.32
₹3.01
80
Rev-Margin DCF
₹2.87
₹4.40
₹6.26
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹2.18
₹2.24
₹2.38
71
ROIC Compounder
₹3.04
₹3.49
₹3.92
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹2.13
₹3.04
₹3.95
67
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
43
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
35
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
52
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
47/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.35.3% vs −4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.8%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 801 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cummins Inc CMI | $525.96 | $359.11 | −32% | vs DUCON |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $269.47 | $153.33 | −43% | vs DUCON |
| SIE SIE | €275.05 | €150.42 | −45% | vs DUCON |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 356.10 | kr 193.59 | −46% | vs DUCON |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $956.89 | $494.81 | −48% | vs DUCON |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $248.58 | $125.77 | −49% | vs DUCON |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $426.69 | $173.12 | −59% | vs DUCON |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $161.08 | $62.54 | −61% | vs DUCON |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $426.23 | $139.31 | −67% | vs DUCON |
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $941.78 | $142.61 | −85% | vs DUCON |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹3.44 versus a price of ₹1.36, about +153% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DUCON?
Our model-based fair value for Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is ₹3.44 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1.36.
What is the quality score of DUCON?
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹3.44 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹2.30, optimistic scenario ₹3.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ducon Infratechnologies Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹3.44, about +153% upside versus a price of ₹1.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹2.30, optimistic scenario ₹3.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹4.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ducon Infratechnologies Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUCON use?
Our models discount Ducon Infratechnologies Limited at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ducon Infratechnologies Limited that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.30 %: that much free cash flow Ducon Infratechnologies Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ducon Infratechnologies Limited it is ₹3.44 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of ₹1.36. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ducon Infratechnologies Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, DUCON trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹1.36, fair value ₹3.44, a gap of about +153% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUCON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹3.44). For Ducon Infratechnologies Limited the two are ₹2.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ducon Infratechnologies Limited worth?
The market values Ducon Infratechnologies Limited at about ₹782M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is ₹1.36; our models calculate a fair value of ₹3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUCON?
Our models span a range for Ducon Infratechnologies Limited: cautious scenario ₹2.30, base ₹3.44, optimistic ₹3.95 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price ₹1.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUCON?
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹3.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 10.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUCON from its 52-week high?
Ducon Infratechnologies Limited trades at ₹1.36, about 73% below its 52-week high of ₹4.96 and 10% above the low of ₹1.24 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ducon Infratechnologies Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ducon Infratechnologies Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price ₹1.36, calculated fair value ₹3.44 (+153%), Quality Score 44/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUCON calculated?
We run Ducon Infratechnologies Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹3.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ducon Infratechnologies Limited currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was ₹1.36. Our model-based fair value is ₹3.44, about +153% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ducon Infratechnologies Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹2.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The market capitalisation of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is ₹782M (≈ $8.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Earnings per share at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited are ₹0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The net margin of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
The operating margin of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Revenue at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON)?
Earnings per share at Ducon Infratechnologies Limited are growing −30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ducon Infratechnologies Limited (DUCON) carry?
The net debt of Ducon Infratechnologies Limited is ₹1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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