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Dufry AG ADR (DUFRY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $9.1B · ISIN US26433T1088

What is Dufry AG ADR really worth?

DA Dufry AG ADR logo Dufry AG ADR DUFRY · US
Price$5.39
Fair Value$3.64
Upside−32.5%
Quality40/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 48% above our fair value of $3.64.

As of Aug 14, 2026, the fair value of Dufry AG ADR is $3.64 per share against a price of $5.39, so the fair value sits 32% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +39.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Weak on balance sheet: 21 out of 100

For context

·2.26% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $2.73 – $6.09

Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 14, 2026, revised from $3.66 to $3.64 (−0.5%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −11.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range ($2.73 to $6.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$6.74 $2.81 Fair Value $3.64 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.81 – $6.74 · fair‑value band $2.73 – $6.09 · the $5.39 price screens above the $3.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Dufry AG ADR (DUFRY) currently trades at $5.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.64, implying the stock looks roughly 48.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.26 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.39 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9000, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dufry AG ADR generated revenue of $14.0B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at $10.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.73 (bear case) to $6.09 (bull case); at $5.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −32%, DUFRY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $19.27 $37.58 $69.85 76
Residual Income $1.17 $1.29 $1.73 76
Growth DCF $18.85 $34.87 $61.65 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $19.27 $37.58 $69.85 76
Owner Earnings $12.96 $25.75 $48.27 72
5Y Revenue Exit $9.16 $15.22 $23.14 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $16.28 $30.45 $48.57 73
5Y P/E Exit $6.52 $9.56 $12.74 71
10Y Revenue Exit $12.22 $19.26 $29.67 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $17.11 $30.41 $51.25 66
10Y P/E Exit $10.68 $15.12 $20.84 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.9100 $4.80 $6.64 63
Lynch FV $1.32 $1.88 $2.45 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.32 $1.88 $2.45 57
EPV $3.55 $4.37 $5.07 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8500 $1.69 $2.56 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8500 $1.46 $1.78 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.22 $2.95 $3.69 63
P/S Multiple $1.71 $2.28 $2.85 58
P/B Multiple $1.71 $2.28 $2.85 55
EV/EBIT $7.24 $10.20 $13.15 65
EV/EBITDA $16.04 $21.93 $27.82 67
EV/Revenue $4.35 $6.91 $9.47 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6700 $0.9000 $1.35 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.85 $34.87 $61.65 75
Rev-Margin DCF $9.16 $15.27 $23.50 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.17 $1.29 $1.73 76
ROIC Compounder $4.32 $6.46 $9.28 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.01 $2.87 $3.73 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.26) versus Asset-Based ($0.9000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 31.7
P/S ratio 0.45 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.1700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7
Dividend yield 2.3% payout 71.7%
Net margin 1.4% FY2025
Return on equity 14.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $14.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.2% 3y avg +24.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +84.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $2.3B FY2025
Net debt $10.7B FY2025 · ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.

Full company description

Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. It offers perfumes and cosmetics, food and beverages, wines and spirits, luxury goods, fuel, electronics, literature, publications, toys and souvenirs, soft drinks, packaged food, travel accessories, personal items, newspapers, magazines, books, watches and jewelry, sunglasses, destination, and other products; and confectionery and catering, textile, leather, luggage, and tobacco and related products. The company operates general travel retail shops under the Dufry, World Duty Free, Hellenic Duty Free, Autogrill, and HMSHost brands; and convenience stores under the Hudson brand. It operates duty-free and duty-paid shops, restaurants, and hybrid concepts located at airports, border, downtown and hotel shops, railway stations, cruise liners and ferries, seaports, and motorways. The company was formerly known as Dufry AG and changed its name to Avolta AG in November 2023. Avolta AG was incorporated in 1865 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Dufry AG ADR reported revenue of CHF 13.4B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.9B in FY2021, a compound +35.9%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 190M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$13.4B
Latest YoY
−2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+39.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.1%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +3.1% (approximate, leans on 2025) · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+0.8%
Dividend yield2.3%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−97.6% (2020) → 7.0% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop2,214% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 107% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain), so this rate uses the operating basis instead of reported profit
Revenue +35.9%/yr
FY21 CHF 3.9B
FY22 CHF 6.9B
FY23 CHF 12.8B
FY24 CHF 13.7B
FY25 CHF 13.4B
Net income
FY21 −CHF 385M
FY22 CHF 58.2M
FY23 CHF 87.3M
FY24 CHF 103M
FY25 CHF 190M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −4.1 %

of which total revenue +9.2 % · buybacks/dilution −12.2 %

EBIT margin +4.4 %
Tax rate −1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

DUFRY screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dufry AG ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUFRY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −33% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.59× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.78× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.65× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 4.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.23× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 31
FUTURE0 · sector 25
PAST59 · sector 27
HEALTH21 · sector 96
DIVIDEND45 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$89.93 C$104.32 +16%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $755.47 $398.90 −47%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $235.09 $162.63 −31%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $537.10 $475.40 −11%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $139.15 $233.87 +68%
Best Buy Co BBY $82.44 $108.04 +31%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.97 ¥40.40 −27%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $34.72 $35.52 +2%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $259.41 $117.29 −55%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $574.12 $423.35 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Dufry AG ADR (DUFRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.64 versus a price of $5.39, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DUFRY?
Our model-based fair value for Dufry AG ADR is $3.64 (as of Aug 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.39.
What is the quality score of DUFRY?
Dufry AG ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dufry AG ADR (DUFRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.64 (as of Aug 14, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.73, optimistic scenario $6.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dufry AG ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.64, about −32% upside versus a price of $5.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.73, optimistic scenario $6.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dufry AG ADR (DUFRY)?
Dufry AG ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DUFRY?
The net profit margin of Dufry AG ADR is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Dufry AG ADR pay a dividend?
Dufry AG ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 14, 2026).
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