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Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 30, 2026: fair value of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company €269, price €179, upside +49.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company
DWD · XETRAUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value €268.82 · Undervalued (+49.9%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.2% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 71/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €14.00 – €199.75 · fair‑value band €126.96 – €366.84 · the €179.35 price screens below the €268.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments.
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Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, (DWD) currently trades at €179.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €268.82, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €397.51 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the €179.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €42.13, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €126.96 (bear) to €366.84 (bull), the price of €179.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, reported revenue of $120B in FY2025 versus $57.8B in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was $16.9B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €315B · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) €9.70 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 50%, DWD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €126.96
Fair Value €268.82
Bull €366.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.31 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
€430.39
€897.42
€1,719
74
Residual Income
€65.42
€85.12
€131.83
74
Owner Earnings
€225.10
€553.05
€1,130
71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
€225.10
€553.05
€1,130
71
5Y P/E Exit
€126.87
€286.15
€457.61
68
10Y P/E Exit
€221.55
€397.51
€623.81
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€64.58
€272.25
€371.53
64
Lynch FV
€69.20
€98.86
€128.52
61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€35.72
€77.98
€131.20
65
DDM Multi-Stage
€35.72
€63.88
€81.27
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€199.43
€265.90
€332.38
63
P/B Multiple
€121.08
€161.44
€201.80
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€31.44
€42.13
€62.87
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€430.39
€897.42
€1,719
74
Rev-Margin DCF
€60.90
€160.18
€278.42
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€65.42
€85.12
€131.83
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.9% vs 15.8%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 82% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.7% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−34.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.3%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $900.36 | $766.86 | −15% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $97.74 | $118.07 | +21% |
| Interactive Brokers Group IBKR | $89.24 | $23.12 | −74% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $116.22 | $47.77 | −59% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$245.63 | A$80.51 | −67% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥26.29 | ¥18.35 | −30% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.21 | ¥19.35 | +12% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥18.28 | ¥4.94 | −73% |
| Nomura Holdings NMR | $9.91 | $10.19 | +3% |
| LPL Financial Holdings LPLA | $308.05 | $126.09 | −59% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €268.82 versus the last price from Jul 30, 2026 of €179.35, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DWD?
Our model-based fair value for Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is €268.82 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 30, 2026): €179.35.
What is the quality score of DWD?
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €268.82 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €126.96, optimistic scenario €366.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €268.82, about +50% upside versus the last price from Jul 30, 2026 of €179.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €126.96, optimistic scenario €366.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $73.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, pay a dividend?
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DWD use?
Our models discount Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, grew +20.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.85 %: that much free cash flow Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, it is €268.82 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of €179.35. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, DWD trades below its calculated fair value: price €179.35, fair value €268.82, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DWD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€179.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€268.82). For Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, the two are €89.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, worth?
The market values Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, at about €315B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is €179.35; our models calculate a fair value of €268.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DWD?
Our models span a range for Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,: cautious scenario €126.96, base €268.82, optimistic €366.84 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price €179.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, Robinhood Markets, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price €179.35, calculated fair value €268.82 (+50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DWD calculated?
We run Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €268.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 30, 2026 and stands at €179.35. Our model-based fair value is €268.82, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€126.96 to €366.84). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) come from?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, grew +14.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.3 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,
How large is the market capitalisation of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The market capitalisation of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is €315B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 18.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 2.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, are €9.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The dividend yield of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 2.2% (payout 41.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The net margin of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
The operating margin of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is 40.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Revenue at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is growing +16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD)?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, are growing +31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company (DWD) carry?
The net debt of Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, is $467B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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