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Ecopetrol S.A (EC) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $34.1B

Price$15.51
Fair Value$18.51
Upside+19.3%
Quality82/100
Evidence: Medium Range $10.74 – $23.01

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

Analysis

Ecopetrol S.A (EC) currently trades at $15.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.51 — implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 82/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium) — always confirm before acting.

About the company

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other A…

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ecopetrol S.A (EC) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.51 versus a price of $15.51 — about +19% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of EC?
Our 21-model fair value for Ecopetrol S.A is $18.51 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $15.51.
What is the quality score of EC?
Ecopetrol S.A has a Quality Score of 82/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.