Ecopetrol SA (EC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ecopetrol SA stock $15.29, price $15.55, that is 1.7% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.88 – $18.26 · fair‑value band $10.24 – $21.62 · the $15.55 price screens above the $15.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions.
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The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels.
The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects.
The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe.
The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
Stock analysis
Ecopetrol SA (EC) currently trades at $15.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.29, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $18.49 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the $15.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.54, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.24 (bear) to $21.62 (bull), the price of $15.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ecopetrol SA ADR reported revenue of 111T COP in FY2025 versus 91.9T COP in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 8.4T COP in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $33.2B Large · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $1.84 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −2%, EC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.24Fair Value $15.29Bull$21.62
Price $15.55 · Downside -1.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in COP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in COP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −9.4% / 8.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in COP, Colombia: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 5.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price and −6.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Integrated operations across the energy chain provide operational scale, yet majority state ownership and governance risks limit any durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Ongoing investigations and lawsuits over unreported pollution incidents could trigger fines, operational restrictions or higher compliance costs that squeeze margins in upstream and refining operations.
Bull case: The company could leverage its AI partnerships and renewable investments to cut emissions faster than required, easing regulatory pressure and opening new revenue streams in low-carbon energy.
Bear case: Escalating legal actions and tighter environmental enforcement could force costly clean-ups, limit new drilling permits and raise operating expenses across core hydrocarbon activities.
Ecopetrol has just wrapped up its largest offshore gas exploration campaign with Petrobras in Colombia's Caribbean waters, drilling five wells and confirming a new discovery after two and a half years of work. This step aims to secure more domestic supply as conventional production faces pressure. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will these exploration results deliver lasting reserve growth or stay limited by the company's heavy state ties and integrated model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)15.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ecopetrol SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EC
Frequently asked questions
Is Ecopetrol SA (EC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.29 versus a price of $15.55, about 2% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EC?
Our model-based fair value for Ecopetrol SA is $15.29 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.55.
What is the quality score of EC?
Ecopetrol SA has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.29 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $21.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ecopetrol SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.29, about 2% lower versus a price of $15.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $21.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Ecopetrol SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 126T COP (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Ecopetrol SA ADR pay a dividend?
Ecopetrol SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ecopetrol SA (EC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ecopetrol SA has a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. The payout ratio is 130% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.48 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ecopetrol SA would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EC use?
Our models discount Ecopetrol SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ecopetrol SA that is -0.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ecopetrol SA (EC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ecopetrol SA grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ecopetrol SA (EC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ecopetrol SA (-0.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.63 %: that much free cash flow Ecopetrol SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ecopetrol SA it is $15.29 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $15.55. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ecopetrol SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, EC trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.55, fair value $15.29, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.29). For Ecopetrol SA the two are $0.2600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ecopetrol SA ADR worth?
The market values Ecopetrol SA at about $33.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $15.55; our models calculate a fair value of $15.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EC?
Our models span a range for Ecopetrol SA: cautious scenario $10.24, base $15.29, optimistic $21.62 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $15.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EC?
Ecopetrol SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.29 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
What is the PEG ratio of EC?
The PEG ratio of Ecopetrol SA is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ecopetrol SA (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EC from its 52-week high?
Ecopetrol SA trades at $15.55, about 15% below its 52-week high of $18.26 and 77% above the low of $8.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ecopetrol SA ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ecopetrol SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $15.55, calculated fair value $15.29 (−2%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EC calculated?
We run Ecopetrol SA through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ecopetrol SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.55. Our model-based fair value is $15.29, about 2% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ecopetrol SA ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($10.24 to $21.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ecopetrol SA (EC) come from?
Earnings per share at Ecopetrol SA grew +16.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate +3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ecopetrol SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The market capitalisation of Ecopetrol SA is $33.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ecopetrol SA is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Earnings per share at Ecopetrol SA are $1.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The dividend yield of Ecopetrol SA is 3.9% (payout 33.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The net margin of Ecopetrol SA is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ecopetrol SA is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ecopetrol SA is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Revenue at Ecopetrol SA is growing +35.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ecopetrol SA (EC)?
Earnings per share at Ecopetrol SA are growing +235% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ecopetrol SA (EC) carry?
The net debt of Ecopetrol SA is 98.4T COP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026