Ecopetrol S.A (EC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $34.1B
Ecopetrol S.A
EC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 10% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($10.74 to $23.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $10.74 (bear) to $23.01 (bull), base $18.51. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 51/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.88 – $17.40 · fair‑value band $10.74 – $23.01 · the $16.78 price screens below the $18.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Ecopetrol S.A (EC) currently trades at $16.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.51, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ecopetrol S.A generated revenue of $126T at a net margin of 7.5%. Revenue declined 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at $98.4T. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.74 (bear case) to $23.01 (bull case); at $16.78, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 10%, EC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($18.51) versus Asset-Based ($7.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas.
Full company description
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ecopetrol S.A reported revenue of $111T in FY2025 versus $91.9T in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $8.4T in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
Watch EC: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ecopetrol Announces the Convening of Bondholders' Meetings for Domestic Public Debt Bonds on August 18
- Fortinet and Ecopetrol have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day
- Bear of the Day: Ecopetrol (EC)
- Ecopetrol Announces Successful Auction Result for the Acquisition of Approximately 25% of the Share Capital of Brava Energia S.A.
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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