ECB S.A. (ECB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of ECB S.A. PLN 19.43, price PLN 20.50, upside -5.2%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
ECB S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of electricity and heat through renewable sources in Poland. The company operates heating plants, coal-fired and gas-fired CHP plants, and waste treatment plants. It is also involved in the storage of electrical and thermal energy, as well as the wholesale of fuel.
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ECB S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of electricity and heat through renewable sources in Poland. The company operates heating plants, coal-fired and gas-fired CHP plants, and waste treatment plants. It is also involved in the storage of electrical and thermal energy, as well as the wholesale of fuel. The company was formerly known as EC Bedzin S.A. and changed its name to ECB S.A. in May 2025. ECB S.A. was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Bedzin, Poland.
Stock analysis
ECB S.A. (ECB) currently trades at 20.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.43 PLN, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 28.58 PLN per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the 20.50 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.79 PLN, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 13.13 PLN (bear) to 25.72 PLN (bull), the price of 20.50 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
ECB S.A. reported revenue of 87.2M PLN in FY2025 versus 244M PLN in FY2021, a compound −22.7%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 64.6M PLN (≈ $16.6M) · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) 2.01 PLN · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 28.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.8% · Operating margin 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −5%, ECB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.13 PLNFair Value 19.43 PLNBull 25.72 PLN
Price 20.50 PLN · Upside -5.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.55 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−35.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−77.5% (2021) → 6.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ECB S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ECB
Frequently asked questions
Is ECB S.A. (ECB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.43 PLN versus a price of 20.50 PLN, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ECB?
Our model-based fair value for ECB S.A. is 19.43 PLN (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20.50 PLN.
What is the quality score of ECB?
ECB S.A. has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.43 PLN (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.13 PLN, optimistic scenario 25.72 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ECB S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.43 PLN, about −5% upside versus a price of 20.50 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 13.13 PLN, optimistic scenario 25.72 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
ECB S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 88.7M PLN (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ECB S.A. (ECB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ECB S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -22.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECB use?
Our models discount ECB S.A. at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 2.25, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ECB S.A. that is -4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ECB S.A. (ECB) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ECB S.A. grew -22.7 % a year. The price currently implies -4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ECB S.A. (ECB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ECB S.A. (-4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.20 %: that much free cash flow ECB S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ECB S.A. it is 19.43 PLN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 20.50 PLN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ECB S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ECB trades above its calculated fair value: price 20.50 PLN, fair value 19.43 PLN, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (20.50 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.43 PLN). For ECB S.A. the two are 1.07 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ECB S.A. worth?
The market values ECB S.A. at about 64.6M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 20.50 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 19.43 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECB?
Our models span a range for ECB S.A.: cautious scenario 13.13 PLN, base 19.43 PLN, optimistic 25.72 PLN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 20.50 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECB?
ECB S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 19.43 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Balance-sheet figures for ECB S.A. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 28.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECB from its 52-week high?
ECB S.A. trades at 20.50 PLN, about 27% below its 52-week high of 28.00 PLN and 11% above the low of 18.50 PLN (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.43 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ECB S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ECB S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 20.50 PLN, calculated fair value 19.43 PLN (−5%), Quality Score 72/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECB calculated?
We run ECB S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.43 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ECB S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 20.50 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 19.43 PLN, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ECB S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (13.13 PLN to 25.72 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ECB S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The market capitalisation of ECB S.A. is 64.6M PLN (≈ $16.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ECB S.A. is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Earnings per share at ECB S.A. are 2.01 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The net margin of ECB S.A. is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ECB S.A. is 28.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ECB S.A. is −16.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ECB S.A. (ECB)?
The operating margin of ECB S.A. is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Revenue at ECB S.A. is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −35.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ECB S.A. (ECB)?
Earnings per share at ECB S.A. are growing +552% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ECB S.A. (ECB) carry?
The net debt of ECB S.A. is 18.1M PLN (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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