ECC Capital Corporation (ECRO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financials · US · Market cap $17.1M
ECC Capital Corporation
ECRO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price −11.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 81% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1059). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0100 – $0.1400 · fair‑value band $0.1059 – $0.1732 · the $0.0800 price screens below the $0.1445 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
ECC Capital Corporation (ECRO) currently trades at $0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1445, implying the stock looks roughly 80.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Financials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Net debt stands at $361M. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1059 (bear case) to $0.1732 (bull case); at $0.0800, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 81% fair-value upside, at 81%, ECRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($0.2200) versus Earnings-Based ($0.1400). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ECC Capital Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in residential mortgage loans in the United States. The Company operates through the Trust Entities and Non-Trust Entities segments. It owns and manages interests in securitization trusts, which issues securities collateralized by residential real estate mortgages.
Full company description
ECC Capital Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in residential mortgage loans in the United States. The Company operates through the Trust Entities and Non-Trust Entities segments. It owns and manages interests in securitization trusts, which issues securities collateralized by residential real estate mortgages. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. It is also involved in loan investment, servicing operations, and coal mining. ECC Capital Corporation was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Kemmerer, Wyoming.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ECC Capital Corporation reported revenue of $83.6M in FY2025 versus $11.4M in FY2021, a compound +64.7%/yr. Reported net income was $3.2M in FY2025, compounding −29.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Financials · 3346 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCKK | $12.00 | $24.00 | +100% |
| CGABL CGABL | $16.46 | $10.72 | -35% |
| American Financial Group AFGE | $15.98 | $17.71 | +11% |
| Unum Group UNMA | $21.88 | $37.30 | +70% |
| Affiliated Managers Group MGR | $20.15 | $36.48 | +81% |
| 540755 540755 | ₹356.55 | ₹713.10 | +100% |
| 500271 500271 | ₹1,498 | ₹416.36 | -72% |
| LTG LTG | 14.30 PHP | 28.60 PHP | +100% |
| LLPC LLPC | £1.47 | £1.03 | -30% |
| Hercules Capital, Inc HCXY | $25.16 | $50.32 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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