Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ecc Cap. Corp. $0.15, price $0.10, upside +45.4%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Ecc Cap. Corp. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0100 – $0.1400 · fair‑value band $0.1079 – $0.1768 · the $0.1000 price screens below the $0.1454 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Ecc Cap. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Ecc Cap. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
ECC Capital Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in residential mortgage loans in the United States. The Company operates through the Trust Entities and Non-Trust Entities segments. It owns and manages interests in securitization trusts, which issues securities collateralized by residential real estate mortgages.
Show more
ECC Capital Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in residential mortgage loans in the United States. The Company operates through the Trust Entities and Non-Trust Entities segments. It owns and manages interests in securitization trusts, which issues securities collateralized by residential real estate mortgages. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. It is also involved in loan investment, servicing operations, and coal mining. ECC Capital Corporation was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Kemmerer, Wyoming.
Stock analysis
Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) currently trades at $0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1454, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 21 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.1079 (bear) to $0.1768 (bull), the price of $0.1000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Financials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ecc Cap. Corp. reported revenue of $83.6M in FY2025 versus $11.4M in FY2021, a compound +64.7%/yr. Reported net income was $3.2M in FY2025, compounding −29.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $19.1M · EPS (TTM) $−1.14 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3% · Operating margin 109% · Revenue (TTM) −$127M · Free cash flow $7.3M · Net debt $361M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 45%, ECRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1079Fair Value $0.1454Bull $0.1768
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+110.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’03
’04
’05
’06
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 14%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.4%/yr over ~20Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +47.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Thrifts & Mortgage Finance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Financials · 3294 stocks
Beats the sector median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+45% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−13% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)109% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Financials median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/FCF2.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA52.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)94· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 42
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1454 versus a price of $0.1000, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECRO?
Our model-based fair value for Ecc Cap. Corp. is $0.1454 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1000.
What is the quality score of ECRO?
Ecc Cap. Corp. has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1454 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1079, optimistic scenario $0.1768. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ecc Cap. Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1454, about +45% upside versus a price of $0.1000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1079, optimistic scenario $0.1768. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ecc Cap. Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +50.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +45.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECRO use?
Our models discount Ecc Cap. Corp. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ecc Cap. Corp. that is +50.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ecc Cap. Corp. grew +45.4 % a year. The price currently implies +50.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ecc Cap. Corp. (+50.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.16 %: that much free cash flow Ecc Cap. Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ecc Cap. Corp. it is $0.1454 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.1000. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ecc Cap. Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ECRO trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1000, fair value $0.1454, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1454). For Ecc Cap. Corp. the two are $0.0454 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ecc Cap. Corp. worth?
The market values Ecc Cap. Corp. at about $19.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1454 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECRO?
Our models span a range for Ecc Cap. Corp.: cautious scenario $0.1079, base $0.1454, optimistic $0.1768 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ecc Cap. Corp. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECRO from its 52-week high?
Ecc Cap. Corp. trades at $0.1000, about 29% below its 52-week high of $0.1400 and 54% above the low of $0.0650 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1454 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ecc Cap. Corp.?
From the same area (Financials) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, CGABL, Unum Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ecc Cap. Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.1000, calculated fair value $0.1454 (+45%), Quality Score 26/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECRO calculated?
We run Ecc Cap. Corp. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1454, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ecc Cap. Corp. currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.1000. Our model-based fair value is $0.1454, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ecc Cap. Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1079). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Ecc Cap. Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
The market capitalisation of Ecc Cap. Corp. is $19.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
Earnings per share at Ecc Cap. Corp. are $−1.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
The net margin of Ecc Cap. Corp. is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ecc Cap. Corp. is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO)?
The operating margin of Ecc Cap. Corp. is 109% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) generate?
Ecc Cap. Corp. generates revenue of −$127M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How much net debt does Ecc Cap. Corp. (ECRO) carry?
The net debt of Ecc Cap. Corp. is $361M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 49.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Ecc Cap. Corp. in the live analysis
One click puts Ecc Cap. Corp. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026