ECTM Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $11.1M
ECTM
ECTM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +3.3% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 184% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1029 – $1.72 · fair‑value band $1.34 – $2.23 · the $0.6304 price screens below the $1.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
ECTM (ECTM) currently trades at $0.6304, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.79, implying the stock looks roughly 184.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ECTM generated revenue of $4.3M at a net margin of 68.2%. Revenue grew 40.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.34 (bear case) to $2.23 (bull case); at $0.6304, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 184%, ECTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($3.11) versus Asset-Based ($0.4800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ECA Marcellus Trust I owns royalty interests in producing wells and horizontal natural gas development wells for Energy Corporation of America. It owns royalty interests in 14 producing wells and 40 development wells located in Greene County, Pennsylvania. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ECTM reported revenue of $3.8M in FY2025 versus $6.3M in FY2021, a compound −12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2M in FY2025, compounding −17.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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