ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit $1.79, price $0.51, upside +251.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1472 – $1.72 · fair‑value band $1.34 – $2.23 · the $0.5100 price screens below the $1.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ECA Marcellus Trust I owns royalty interests in producing wells and horizontal natural gas development wells for Energy Corporation of America. It owns royalty interests in 14 producing wells and 40 development wells located in Greene County, Pennsylvania. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM) currently trades at $0.5100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.79, implying the stock looks roughly 71.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $4.00 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the $0.5100 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4800, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.34 (bear) to $2.23 (bull), the price of $0.5100 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit reported revenue of $3.8M in FY2025 versus $6.3M in FY2021, a compound −12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2M in FY2025, compounding −17.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0M · P/E ratio 3.4 · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Net margin 59.6% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.0% · Operating margin 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 251%, ECTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.34Fair Value $1.79Bull $2.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0023 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+73.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−31.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+27.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.1% vs −7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60% → 69%
2025 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)61.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)27.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ECTM
Frequently asked questions
Is ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.79 versus a price of $0.5100, about +251% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECTM?
Our model-based fair value for ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is $1.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5100.
What is the quality score of ECTM?
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.79, about +251% upside versus a price of $0.5100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit it is $1.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5100. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ECTM trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5100, fair value $1.79, a gap of about +251% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.79). For ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit the two are $1.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit worth?
The market values ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit at about $9.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5100; our models calculate a fair value of $1.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECTM?
Our models span a range for ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit: cautious scenario $1.34, base $1.79, optimistic $2.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECTM?
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECTM from its 52-week high?
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit trades at $0.5100, about 24% below its 52-week high of $0.6689 and 34% above the low of $0.3812 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5100, calculated fair value $1.79 (+251%), Quality Score 79/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECTM calculated?
We run ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.5100. Our model-based fair value is $1.79, about +251% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit
How large is the market capitalisation of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The market capitalisation of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is $9.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is 2.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Earnings per share at ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The net margin of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is 59.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is 25.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
The operating margin of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Revenue at ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM)?
Earnings per share at ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit are growing −93.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM) generate?
The free cash flow of ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit is −$1.2B (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit (ECTM) hold?
ECA Marcellus Trust I Unit holds more cash than debt, $3.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026