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East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of East Japan Railway Co stock $9.08, price $11.69, upside -22.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ADR · Home Japan

EJ East Japan Railway Co logo Broad data Oct 22, 2026

East Japan Railway Co

EJPRY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 22% below what the stock costs today.

Broad data
Quality 47/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr in JPY)
Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
2.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Moderate moat 49/100
Fair value $9.08 · Overvalued (−22.3%)
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$12.95 $7.11 Fair Value $9.08 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.11 – $12.95 · fair‑value band $7.56 – $9.82 · the $11.69 price screens above the $9.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.

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Company profile

East Japan Railway Company operates as a passenger railway company in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation, Retail & Services, Real Estate & Hotels, and Others segments.

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It offers passenger railway, freight, bus transportation, station operations, travel agency, warehousing, financial, telecommunication, computer-related data, leasing of personal property, dry cleaning, casualty insurance, and other agency services.

The company is also involved in the operation of aerial cableway and parking lot; advertising and promotion; books and magazines publication; automobile maintenance and repair; hotel and restaurant management; civil engineering and general construction; facilities construction; and electricity supply businesses.

In addition, it engages in the sale of prepaid vouchers, memberships for sport and leisure facilities, including golf and tennis clubs; and oil, gas, and car accessories; travel goods, food, beverages, liquors, medicines, cosmetics, and daily necessities.

Further, the company is involved in the sale, leasing, management, and brokerage of real estate properties; manufacture of transport-related machinery and equipment, as well as precision and industrial machinery and tools; production and sale of signs and information boards; and establishment and management of recreation areas, physical fitness facilities, cultural facilities, preparatory schools and other educational facilities, and movie theaters.

Additionally, it engages in the production of beverages and liquors; processing and sale of marine products; manufacture and sale of aggregates, masonry materials, concrete posts, and blocks; railcar manufacturing and maintenance operations; sale of tickets for events; and photo development activities.

East Japan Railway Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) currently trades at $11.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.08, 22.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.61 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $11.69 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.17, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.56 (bear) to $9.82 (bull), the price of $11.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

East Japan Railway Co ADR reported revenue of ¥3.3T in FY2026 versus ¥2.0T in FY2022, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥263B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $26.4B Large · P/E ratio 18.0 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.6500 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −22%, EJPRY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.56 Fair Value $9.08 Bull $9.82
Price $11.69 · Upside -22.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3668 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $7.59 $8.30 $9.86 76
Gordon GGM $2.35 $3.17 $4.05 69
EPV n/a n/a $1.71 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.04 $9.12 $11.26 66
EPV n/a n/a $1.71 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.35 $3.17 $4.05 69
DDM Multi-Stage $2.35 $3.32 $4.60 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $11.68 $15.58 $19.47 63
P/S Multiple $9.46 $12.61 $15.76 58
P/B Multiple $27.21 $36.28 $45.35 55
EV/EBIT $1.92 $7.19 $12.45 60
EV/EBITDA $11.12 $19.46 $27.79 65
EV/Revenue n/a $2.23 $7.06 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.03 $5.40 $8.06 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.59 $8.30 $9.86 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $1.71 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.26 $11.80 $15.34 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 47
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 20
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 46
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 87
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 45
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 46
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 83
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.8% vs 0.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−30% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

EJPRY screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Diversification into station retail and real estate cushions rail ridership swings, yet negative free cash flow and elevated total debt constrain the business.
Main risk: Japan's aging population leads to structurally lower transport volumes, which would reduce demand for the core rail operations.
East Japan Railway runs dense commuter lines around Tokyo and Shinkansen routes that together carry roughly 16.5 million passengers a day, while station retail and real estate already contribute a large share of revenue. This diversification cushions swings in ridership, but Japan's aging population points to structurally lower transport volumes ahead. Will the lifestyle solutions side expand fast enough to more than offset slower core rail demand?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 105 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −22.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.0% · Above median
Return on assets 2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 16.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.50× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.35× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.32× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.85× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)25 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)41 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.26 ¥9.21 +47% vs EJPRY
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.81 ¥5.48 +14% vs EJPRY
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.17 ¥5.69 +10% vs EJPRY
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $288.96 $290.92 +1% vs EJPRY
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $122.05 $99.40 −19% vs EJPRY
Getlink SE GET €19.38 €10.47 −46% vs EJPRY
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $287.61 $153.89 −46% vs EJPRY
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $88.10 $38.18 −57% vs EJPRY
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $328.09 $132.55 −60% vs EJPRY
CSX Corporation CSX $48.40 $12.92 −73% vs EJPRY

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East Japan Railway Co ADR · Fair Value
$9.08 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "East Japan Railway Co ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EJPRY

Frequently asked questions

Is East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.08 versus a price of $11.69, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EJPRY?
Our model-based fair value for East Japan Railway Co ADR is $9.08 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.69.
What is the quality score of EJPRY?
East Japan Railway Co ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.08 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.56, optimistic scenario $9.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the East Japan Railway Co ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.08, about −22% upside versus a price of $11.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.56, optimistic scenario $9.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
East Japan Railway Co ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does East Japan Railway Co ADR pay a dividend?
East Japan Railway Co ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For East Japan Railway Co ADR it is $9.08 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $11.69. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is East Japan Railway Co ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, EJPRY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.69, fair value $9.08, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EJPRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.08). For East Japan Railway Co ADR the two are $2.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is East Japan Railway Co ADR worth?
The market values East Japan Railway Co ADR at about $26.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $11.69; our models calculate a fair value of $9.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EJPRY?
Our models span a range for East Japan Railway Co ADR: cautious scenario $7.56, base $9.08, optimistic $9.82 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $11.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EJPRY?
East Japan Railway Co ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EJPRY?
The PEG ratio of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 2.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for East Japan Railway Co ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 1.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EJPRY from its 52-week high?
East Japan Railway Co ADR trades at $11.69, about 10% below its 52-week high of $12.95 and 17% above the low of $10.02 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to East Japan Railway Co ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is East Japan Railway Co ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $11.69, calculated fair value $9.08 (−22%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EJPRY calculated?
We run East Japan Railway Co ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. East Japan Railway Co ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $11.69. Our model-based fair value is $9.08, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with East Japan Railway Co ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) come from?
Earnings per share at East Japan Railway Co ADR grew −0.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of East Japan Railway Co ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The market capitalisation of East Japan Railway Co ADR is $26.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Earnings per share at East Japan Railway Co ADR are $0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The dividend yield of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 2.1% (payout 37.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The net margin of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 8.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
The operating margin of East Japan Railway Co ADR is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Revenue at East Japan Railway Co ADR is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY)?
Earnings per share at East Japan Railway Co ADR are growing −13.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) generate?
The free cash flow of East Japan Railway Co ADR is −¥130B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does East Japan Railway Co (EJPRY) carry?
The net debt of East Japan Railway Co ADR is ¥4.9T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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