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Data-driven stock valuation

East Japan Railway Co ADR (EJPRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what East Japan Railway Co ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $23.5B · ISIN US2732021017

At a glance

EJ East Japan Railway Co ADR logo East Japan Railway Co ADR EJPRY · US
Price$11.21
Fair Value$12.04
Upside+7.4%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $12.04.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of East Japan Railway Co ADR is $12.04 per share against a price of $11.21, so the fair value sits 7% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.17% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 25 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $8.43 to $15.65

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $11.49 to $12.04 (+4.8%) since Aug 31, 2026. Share price +4.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($8.43 to $15.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$13.15 $7.28 Fair Value $12.04 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.28 – $13.15 · fair‑value band $8.43 – $15.65 · the $11.21 price screens below the $12.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

East Japan Railway Co ADR (EJPRY) currently trades at $11.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.04, implying the stock looks roughly 6.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.86 per share, and 5 of the 10 models we run sit above the $11.21 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.90, and 5 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, East Japan Railway Co ADR generated revenue of ¥3.1T at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at ¥4.9T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $8.43 (bear) to $15.65 (bull), the price of $11.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 7%, EJPRY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $7.46 $8.09 $10.22 71
EPV n/a n/a $0.1093 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $0.1093 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.15 $9.31 $11.49 66
EPV n/a n/a $0.1093 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple $11.92 $15.89 $19.86 63
P/S Multiple $9.65 $12.86 $16.08 58
P/B Multiple $9.65 $12.86 $16.08 55
EV/EBIT $3.68 $9.06 $14.43 61
EV/EBITDA $13.07 $21.58 $30.08 65
EV/Revenue n/a $4.00 $8.93 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.41 $5.90 $8.81 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $7.46 $8.09 $10.22 71
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $0.1093 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.43 $12.04 $15.65 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($12.86) versus Asset-Based ($5.90). Highest evidence: Residual Income (71).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.2
P/S ratio 1.31 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.6900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 35.3%
Net margin 8.0% FY2026
Return on equity 8.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 7.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥3.1T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.9% 3y avg +10.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +272%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −¥130B FY2026
Net debt ¥4.9T FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

East Japan Railway Company operates as a passenger railway company in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation, Retail & Services, Real Estate & Hotels, and Others segments.

Full company description

East Japan Railway Company operates as a passenger railway company in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Transportation, Retail & Services, Real Estate & Hotels, and Others segments. It offers passenger railway, freight, bus transportation, station operations, travel agency, warehousing, financial, telecommunication, computer-related data, leasing of personal property, dry cleaning, casualty insurance, and other agency services. The company is also involved in the operation of aerial cableway and parking lot; advertising and promotion; books and magazines publication; automobile maintenance and repair; hotel and restaurant management; civil engineering and general construction; facilities construction; and electricity supply businesses. In addition, it engages in the sale of prepaid vouchers, memberships for sport and leisure facilities, including golf and tennis clubs; and oil, gas, and car accessories; travel goods, food, beverages, liquors, medicines, cosmetics, and daily necessities. Further, the company is involved in the sale, leasing, management, and brokerage of real estate properties; manufacture of transport-related machinery and equipment, as well as precision and industrial machinery and tools; production and sale of signs and information boards; and establishment and management of recreation areas, physical fitness facilities, cultural facilities, preparatory schools and other educational facilities, and movie theaters. Additionally, it engages in the production of beverages and liquors; processing and sale of marine products; manufacture and sale of aggregates, masonry materials, concrete posts, and blocks; railcar manufacturing and maintenance operations; sale of tickets for events; and photo development activities. East Japan Railway Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

East Japan Railway Co ADR reported revenue of ¥3.3T in FY2026 versus ¥2.0T in FY2022, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥263B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥3.3T
Latest YoY
+13.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.8%
Dividend yield2.2%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 5.8% vs 10Y 0.7%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−29.5% (2021) → 13.4% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop296% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in JPY
Revenue +13.4%/yr
FY22 ¥2.0T
FY23 ¥2.4T
FY24 ¥2.7T
FY25 ¥2.9T
FY26 ¥3.3T
Net income
FY22 −¥94.9B
FY23 ¥99.2B
FY24 ¥196B
FY25 ¥224B
FY26 ¥263B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −0.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.5 %

of which total revenue +0.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −2.4 %
Tax rate +1.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "East Japan Railway Co ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EJPRY

Peer Group

Railroads · 109 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.50× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.76× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE43 · sector 21
FUTURE55 · sector 20
PAST34 · sector 30
HEALTH25 · sector 90
DIVIDEND43 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $289.62 $141.29 −51%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $91.60 $34.55 −62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$170.58 C$92.68 −46%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is East Japan Railway Co ADR (EJPRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.04 versus a price of $11.21, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EJPRY?
Our model-based fair value for East Japan Railway Co ADR is $12.04 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.21.
What is the quality score of EJPRY?
East Japan Railway Co ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for East Japan Railway Co ADR (EJPRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.04 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.43, optimistic scenario $15.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the East Japan Railway Co ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.04, about +7% upside versus a price of $11.21 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.43, optimistic scenario $15.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of East Japan Railway Co ADR (EJPRY)?
East Japan Railway Co ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EJPRY?
The net profit margin of East Japan Railway Co ADR is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does East Japan Railway Co ADR pay a dividend?
East Japan Railway Co ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
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