Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Elia Group SA/NV is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €54.62 – €140.00 · fair‑value band €34.02 – €99.75 · the €119.60 price screens above the €75.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Elia Group SA/NV develops and operates as a transmission system operator in Belgium and Germany. The company provides electricity transmission solutions; generates, imports, and exports electricity; and offers engineering consultancy services. Elia Group SA/NV was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) currently trades at €119.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €75.44, implying the stock looks roughly 58.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €96.63 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the €119.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €19.06, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €34.02 (bear) to €99.75 (bull), the price of €119.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Elia Group SA/NV reported revenue of €4.4B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was €586M in FY2025, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €14.1B · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 2.93 · EPS (TTM) €5.50 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −37%, ELI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €34.02Fair Value €75.44Bull €99.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 36%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (13 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−37% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.14× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.38× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.82× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 53
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elia Group SA/NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELI
Frequently asked questions
Is Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €75.44 versus a price of €119.60, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELI?
Our model-based fair value for Elia Group SA/NV is €75.44 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €119.60.
What is the quality score of ELI?
Elia Group SA/NV has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €75.44 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €34.02, optimistic scenario €99.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elia Group SA/NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €75.44, about −37% upside versus a price of €119.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €34.02, optimistic scenario €99.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Elia Group SA/NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Elia Group SA/NV pay a dividend?
Elia Group SA/NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elia Group SA/NV it is €75.44 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of €119.60. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elia Group SA/NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, ELI trades above its calculated fair value: price €119.60, fair value €75.44, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€119.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€75.44). For Elia Group SA/NV the two are €44.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elia Group SA/NV worth?
The market values Elia Group SA/NV at about €14.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is €119.60; our models calculate a fair value of €75.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELI?
Our models span a range for Elia Group SA/NV: cautious scenario €34.02, base €75.44, optimistic €99.75 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price €119.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELI?
Elia Group SA/NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €75.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 2.1, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ELI?
The PEG ratio of Elia Group SA/NV is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elia Group SA/NV (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 2.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELI from its 52-week high?
Elia Group SA/NV trades at €119.60, about 15% below its 52-week high of €140.95 and 31% above the low of €90.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €75.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elia Group SA/NV?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, National Grid plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elia Group SA/NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price €119.60, calculated fair value €75.44 (−37%), Quality Score 28/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELI calculated?
We run Elia Group SA/NV through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €75.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Elia Group SA/NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €119.60. Our model-based fair value is €75.44, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elia Group SA/NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€99.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€34.02 to €99.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) come from?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.6 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Elia Group SA/NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The market capitalisation of Elia Group SA/NV is €14.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elia Group SA/NV is 2.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV are €5.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The dividend yield of Elia Group SA/NV is 1.7% (payout 37.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The net margin of Elia Group SA/NV is 13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elia Group SA/NV is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elia Group SA/NV is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The operating margin of Elia Group SA/NV is 36.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Revenue at Elia Group SA/NV is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV are growing −23.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) generate?
The free cash flow of Elia Group SA/NV is −€2.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) carry?
The net debt of Elia Group SA/NV is €14.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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