Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Elia Group SA/NV stock €88.75, price €134, that is 33.8% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.
Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin (TTM)
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +18% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +15.0 %/yr in EUR)
1.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat56/100
Some data
Fair value €88.75 · Overvalued (−33.8%)
Quality 28/100
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers(3/14)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Permitting setbacks on Ventilus and similar projects🚩Regulatory framework changes in Belgium and Germany🚩Heavy reliance on debt markets for refinancing
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €54.62 – €140.00 · fair‑value band €55.21 – €117.35 · the €134.00 price screens above the €88.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Elia Group SA/NV develops and operates as a transmission system operator in Belgium and Germany. The company provides electricity transmission solutions; generates, imports, and exports electricity; and offers engineering consultancy services.
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Elia Group SA/NV was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) currently trades at €134.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €88.75, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €90.27 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the €134.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €18.50, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €55.21 (bear) to €117.35 (bull), the price of €134.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Elia Group SA/NV reported revenue of €4.4B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was €586M in FY2025, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €14.6B Large · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 3.03 · EPS (TTM) €5.80 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −34%, ELI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€55.21Fair Value €88.75Bull€117.35
Price €134.00 · Downside -33.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.9% vs 7.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 36%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Elia's regulated asset base drives profit growth via large-scale grid investments for renewables and interconnections, yet weak pricing power together with high leverage and negative free cash flow constrain durability.
Main risk: Shifts in the cost-plus models or allowed returns for the next regulatory periods starting 2028 in Belgium and 2029 in Germany could reduce revenues or margins on the regulated asset base.
Bull case: Elia could benefit from supportive regulatory outcomes that maintain or increase allowed returns while using its scale in Belgium and Germany to secure efficient financing and accelerate renewable integration.
Bear case: Adverse regulatory resets combined with constrained debt markets might force project delays or reduced investment returns, limiting growth from the regulated asset base.
Elia is pushing ahead with a huge grid buildout to integrate more renewables and strengthen European interconnections, delivering solid profit growth from its regulated asset base and higher returns. At the same time, recent permitting setbacks on major Belgian projects like Ventilus show how execution can hit snags even as the investment program scales up. Will the regulatory tailwinds from interest rates keep the momentum going, or will project delays start to constrain the growth story?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−33.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)43.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.03× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG2.82× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elia Group SA/NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELI
Frequently asked questions
Is Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €88.75 versus a price of €134.00, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELI?
Our model-based fair value for Elia Group SA/NV is €88.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €134.00.
What is the quality score of ELI?
Elia Group SA/NV has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €88.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €55.21, optimistic scenario €117.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elia Group SA/NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €88.75, about 34% lower versus a price of €134.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €55.21, optimistic scenario €117.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Elia Group SA/NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Elia Group SA/NV pay a dividend?
Elia Group SA/NV currently shows a dividend yield of 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elia Group SA/NV it is €88.75 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €134.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elia Group SA/NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ELI trades above its calculated fair value: price €134.00, fair value €88.75, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€134.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€88.75). For Elia Group SA/NV the two are €45.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elia Group SA/NV worth?
The market values Elia Group SA/NV at about €14.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €134.00; our models calculate a fair value of €88.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELI?
Our models span a range for Elia Group SA/NV: cautious scenario €55.21, base €88.75, optimistic €117.35 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €134.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELI?
Elia Group SA/NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €88.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ELI?
The PEG ratio of Elia Group SA/NV is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elia Group SA/NV (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 2.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELI from its 52-week high?
Elia Group SA/NV trades at €134.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of €140.00 and 35% above the low of €99.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €88.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elia Group SA/NV?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elia Group SA/NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €134.00, calculated fair value €88.75 (−34%), Quality Score 28/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELI calculated?
We run Elia Group SA/NV through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €88.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Elia Group SA/NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €134.00. Our model-based fair value is €88.75, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elia Group SA/NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€117.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€55.21 to €117.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) come from?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.6 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Elia Group SA/NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The market capitalisation of Elia Group SA/NV is €14.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elia Group SA/NV is 3.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV are €5.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The dividend yield of Elia Group SA/NV is 1.5% (payout 35.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The net margin of Elia Group SA/NV is 13.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elia Group SA/NV is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elia Group SA/NV is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
The operating margin of Elia Group SA/NV is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Revenue at Elia Group SA/NV is growing +18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elia Group SA/NV (ELI)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group SA/NV are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) generate?
The free cash flow of Elia Group SA/NV is −€2.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Elia Group SA/NV (ELI) carry?
The net debt of Elia Group SA/NV is €14.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026