Elia Group (ELI) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BE · Market cap €14.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€99.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€53.71 to €99.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €54.62 – €140.00 · fair‑value band €53.71 – €99.75 · the €132.60 price screens above the €76.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Elia Group (ELI) currently trades at €132.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €76.73, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Elia Group generated revenue of €4.4B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 14.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at €14.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €53.71 (bear case) to €99.75 (bull case); at €132.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -42%, ELI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€107.36) versus Dividend Discount (€19.06). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Elia Group SA/NV develops and operates as a transmission system operator in Belgium and Germany. The company provides electricity transmission solutions; generates, imports, and exports electricity; and offers engineering consultancy services. Elia Group SA/NV was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Elia Group reported revenue of €4.4B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was €586M in FY2025, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2021.
ELI screens 42% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Elia Group and CPP to acquire Tarchon UK-Germany interconnector
- Elia Group SA/NV (ELIAF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth Amid Strategic ...
- Elia Group and CPP Investments expand partnership with acquisition of the Tarchon interconnector project
- Elia Group SA/NV (ELIAF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance Amid ...
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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