Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Emmis Communications Corp $2.30, price $1.61, upside +42.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7194 – $5.25 · fair‑value band $1.72 – $2.87 · the $1.61 price screens below the $2.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Emmis Corporation, a diversified media company, engages in radio broadcasting activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Radio and Publishing. It operates 4 FM and 2 AM radio stations in New York and Indianapolis, as well as publishes Indianapolis Monthly magazine.
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The company also offers dynamic pricing consulting services; and sound masking solutions for offices and other commercial applications. The company was formerly known as Emmis Communications Corporation and changed its name to Emmis Corporation in August 2022.
Emmis Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS) currently trades at $1.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.30, implying the stock looks roughly 29.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.61 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the $1.61 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.14, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.72 (bear) to $2.87 (bull), the price of $1.61 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Emmis Communications Corp reported revenue of $39.7M in FY2020 versus $231M in FY2016, a compound −35.6%/yr. Reported net income was $50.5M in FY2020, compounding +121.1%/yr from FY2016. FY2016 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $26.8M · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $−1.66 · Net margin 127% · Return on equity −22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3% · Operating margin −26.7% · Revenue (TTM) $39.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 43%, EMMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.72Fair Value $2.30Bull$2.87
Price $1.61 · Upside +42.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.11/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−43.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.1%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2015 to 2020 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → −44%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 22.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2020, which sits 125% above its own trend.
Compare Emmis Communications Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+42.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets22.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)127.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−26.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
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Is Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.30 versus a price of $1.61, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EMMS?
Our model-based fair value for Emmis Communications Corp is $2.30 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.61.
What is the quality score of EMMS?
Emmis Communications Corp has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.30 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.72, optimistic scenario $2.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Emmis Communications Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.30, about +43% upside versus a price of $1.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.72, optimistic scenario $2.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Emmis Communications Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Emmis Communications Corp it is $2.30 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.61. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Emmis Communications Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, EMMS trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.61, fair value $2.30, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.30). For Emmis Communications Corp the two are $0.6850 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Emmis Communications Corp worth?
The market values Emmis Communications Corp at about $26.8M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.61; our models calculate a fair value of $2.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMMS?
Our models span a range for Emmis Communications Corp: cautious scenario $1.72, base $2.30, optimistic $2.87 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Emmis Communications Corp (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −22.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EMMS from its 52-week high?
Emmis Communications Corp trades at $1.61, about 43% below its 52-week high of $2.82 and 61% above the low of $1.00 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Emmis Communications Corp?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, Sun TV Network Limited, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation, SES S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Emmis Communications Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.61, calculated fair value $2.30 (+43%), Quality Score 65/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMMS calculated?
We run Emmis Communications Corp through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Emmis Communications Corp currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $1.61. Our model-based fair value is $2.30, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Emmis Communications Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Emmis Communications Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The market capitalisation of Emmis Communications Corp is $26.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Emmis Communications Corp is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Earnings per share at Emmis Communications Corp are $−1.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The net margin of Emmis Communications Corp is 127% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Emmis Communications Corp is −22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Emmis Communications Corp is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
The operating margin of Emmis Communications Corp is −26.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Revenue at Emmis Communications Corp is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −43.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS)?
Earnings per share at Emmis Communications Corp are growing +71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS) generate?
The free cash flow of Emmis Communications Corp is −$13.0M (fiscal year 2020). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Emmis Communications Corp (EMMS) hold?
Emmis Communications Corp holds more cash than debt, $27.6M net (fiscal year 2020). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026