Earlypay Ltd (EPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Earlypay Ltd A$0.23, price A$0.15, upside +58.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1050 – A$0.5148 · the A$0.1450 price screens below the A$0.2300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Earlypay Limited engages in the provision of financial solutions to businesses in Australia. It offers invoice finance, such as debtor and trade finance; invoice factoring and discounting, and clean energy finance services, as well as business line of credit.
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Earlypay Limited engages in the provision of financial solutions to businesses in Australia. It offers invoice finance, such as debtor and trade finance; invoice factoring and discounting, and clean energy finance services, as well as business line of credit. The company also provides equipment finance services for old and new equipment, such as sale back of owned or partially owned equipment, private sales, and mid-term refinancing. In addition, it offers payroll and trade finance services, and asset finance. Additionally, it offers supplier early payment platform solutions and ATO tax debt services. The company was formerly known as CML Group Limited and changed its name to Earlypay Limited in November 2020. Earlypay Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Earlypay Ltd (EPY) currently trades at A$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2300, implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.5300 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.1450 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Earlypay Ltd reported revenue of A$50.9M in FY2025 versus A$42.5M in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.9M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$39.9M (≈ $28.1M) · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 59%, EPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2300Fair Value A$0.2300Bull A$0.2300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0030 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19% vs 39%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 41%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 330 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+59% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Earlypay Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EPY
Frequently asked questions
Is Earlypay Ltd (EPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2300 versus a price of A$0.1450, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EPY?
Our model-based fair value for Earlypay Ltd is A$0.2300 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1450.
What is the quality score of EPY?
Earlypay Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2300 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Earlypay Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2300, about +59% upside versus a price of A$0.1450 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Earlypay Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$50.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Earlypay Ltd pay a dividend?
Earlypay Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Earlypay Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EPY use?
Our models discount Earlypay Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Earlypay Ltd that is +11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Earlypay Ltd (EPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Earlypay Ltd grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Earlypay Ltd (EPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Earlypay Ltd (+11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.01 %: that much free cash flow Earlypay Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Earlypay Ltd it is A$0.2300 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1450. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Earlypay Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EPY trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1450, fair value A$0.2300, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2300). For Earlypay Ltd the two are A$0.0850 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Earlypay Ltd worth?
The market values Earlypay Ltd at about A$39.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1450; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2300 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of EPY?
Earlypay Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2300 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Earlypay Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 1.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EPY from its 52-week high?
Earlypay Ltd trades at A$0.1450, about 33% below its 52-week high of A$0.2150 and 38% above the low of A$0.1050 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Earlypay Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Earlypay Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1450, calculated fair value A$0.2300 (+59%), Quality Score 58/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EPY calculated?
We run Earlypay Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Earlypay Ltd currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.1450. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2300, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Earlypay Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.2300). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Earlypay Ltd (EPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Earlypay Ltd grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −18.0 %, EBIT margin +35.2 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Earlypay Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The market capitalisation of Earlypay Ltd is A$39.9M (≈ $28.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Earlypay Ltd is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Earnings per share at Earlypay Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The dividend yield of Earlypay Ltd is 4.8% (payout 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The net margin of Earlypay Ltd is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Earlypay Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Earlypay Ltd is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The operating margin of Earlypay Ltd is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Revenue at Earlypay Ltd is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Earnings per share at Earlypay Ltd are growing +406% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Earlypay Ltd (EPY) carry?
The net debt of Earlypay Ltd is A$199M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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