Earlypay Ltd (EPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Earlypay Ltd stock A$0.18, price A$0.13, upside +44.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1050 – A$0.5148 · fair‑value band A$0.0360 – A$0.1900 · the A$0.1250 price screens below the A$0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Earlypay Limited engages in the provision of financial solutions to businesses in Australia. It offers invoice finance, such as debtor and trade finance; invoice factoring and discounting, and clean energy finance services, as well as business line of credit.
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The company also provides equipment finance services for old and new equipment, such as sale back of owned or partially owned equipment, private sales, and mid-term refinancing. In addition, it offers payroll and trade finance services, and asset finance.
Additionally, it offers supplier early payment platform solutions and ATO tax debt services. The company was formerly known as CML Group Limited and changed its name to Earlypay Limited in November 2020. Earlypay Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Earlypay Ltd (EPY) currently trades at A$0.1250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.5100 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.1250 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0360 (bear) to A$0.1900 (bull), the price of A$0.1250 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Earlypay Ltd reported revenue of A$52.8M in FY2026 versus A$26.0M in FY2022, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$446K in FY2026, compounding −57.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$30.7M (≈ $21.2M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.67 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 35.3% · Revenue (TTM) A$52.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 44%, EPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0360Fair Value A$0.1800BullA$0.1900
Price A$0.1250 · Upside +44.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −43.9% / 15.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 33%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 283 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+44.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)35.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.45× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.58× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)4.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA14.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)92· sector 59
FUTURE (revenue growth)45· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)32· sector 64
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Earlypay Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EPY
Frequently asked questions
Is Earlypay Ltd (EPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1800 versus a price of A$0.1250, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EPY?
Our model-based fair value for Earlypay Ltd is A$0.1800 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1250.
What is the quality score of EPY?
Earlypay Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1800 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0360, optimistic scenario A$0.1900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Earlypay Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1800, about +44% upside versus a price of A$0.1250 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0360, optimistic scenario A$0.1900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Earlypay Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$52.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Earlypay Ltd pay a dividend?
Earlypay Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Earlypay Ltd (EPY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Earlypay Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.002 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 1, 2026. The payout ratio is 110% of earnings. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Earlypay Ltd it is A$0.1800 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.1250. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Earlypay Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, EPY trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1250, fair value A$0.1800, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1250); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1800). For Earlypay Ltd the two are A$0.0550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Earlypay Ltd worth?
The market values Earlypay Ltd at about A$30.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1250; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EPY?
Our models span a range for Earlypay Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0360, base A$0.1800, optimistic A$0.1900 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.1250). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Earlypay Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 4.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EPY from its 52-week high?
Earlypay Ltd trades at A$0.1250, about 42% below its 52-week high of A$0.2150 and 19% above the low of A$0.1050 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Earlypay Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Earlypay Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.1250, calculated fair value A$0.1800 (+44%), Quality Score 59/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EPY calculated?
We run Earlypay Ltd through 9 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1800 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Earlypay Ltd currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.1250. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1800, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Earlypay Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0360 to A$0.1900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Earlypay Ltd (EPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Earlypay Ltd grew −1.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −13.2 %, EBIT margin +20.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Earlypay Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The market capitalisation of Earlypay Ltd is A$30.7M (≈ $21.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Earlypay Ltd is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The dividend yield of Earlypay Ltd is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The net margin of Earlypay Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Earlypay Ltd is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Earlypay Ltd is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
The operating margin of Earlypay Ltd is 35.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Revenue at Earlypay Ltd is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Earlypay Ltd (EPY)?
Earnings per share at Earlypay Ltd are growing −70.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Earlypay Ltd (EPY) generate?
The free cash flow of Earlypay Ltd is A$7.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Earlypay Ltd (EPY) carry?
The net debt of Earlypay Ltd is A$258M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 34.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026