Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ernst Russ AG €8.98, price €10.45, upside -14.1%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.38 – €10.45 · fair‑value band €5.85 – €13.58 · the €10.45 price screens above the €8.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ernst Russ AG is a publicly owned investment manager. It invest in shipping, alternative investments, real estate, private equity and renewable energy. Within ship participation, the firm invests in part-owning ships and funds for ship participation and dormant investments with conversion options.
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Ernst Russ AG is a publicly owned investment manager. It invest in shipping, alternative investments, real estate, private equity and renewable energy. Within ship participation, the firm invests in part-owning ships and funds for ship participation and dormant investments with conversion options. In property investment funds, it seeks to invest in closed ended property investment funds. Within private equity the firm seeks to invest in private equity and venture capital funds. It also invests in real estate investments. Ernst Russ AG formerly known as HCI Capital AG. Ernst Russ AG was founded in 1985 and is based in Hamburg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) currently trades at €10.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.98, implying the stock looks roughly 16.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €38.70 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the €10.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.94, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.85 (bear) to €13.58 (bull), the price of €10.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ernst Russ AG reported revenue of €158M in FY2025 versus €92.3M in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was €73.5M in FY2025, compounding +46.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €352M · P/E ratio 5.9 · P/S ratio 2.73 · EPS (TTM) €1.78 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 46.5% · Return on equity 27.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at −14%, ERAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.85Fair Value €8.98Bull €13.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +59.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+56.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.79% vs 51%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 32%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 57% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.4% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ernst Russ AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERAG
Frequently asked questions
Is Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.98 versus a price of €10.45, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERAG?
Our model-based fair value for Ernst Russ AG is €8.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.45.
What is the quality score of ERAG?
Ernst Russ AG has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.85, optimistic scenario €13.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ernst Russ AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.98, about −14% upside versus a price of €10.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.85, optimistic scenario €13.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Ernst Russ AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €149M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Ernst Russ AG pay a dividend?
Ernst Russ AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ernst Russ AG would have to grow free cash flow by -6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ERAG use?
Our models discount Ernst Russ AG at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ernst Russ AG that is -6.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ernst Russ AG grew +23.3 % a year. The price currently implies -6.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ernst Russ AG (-6.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.67 %: that much free cash flow Ernst Russ AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ernst Russ AG it is €8.98 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €10.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ernst Russ AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ERAG trades above its calculated fair value: price €10.45, fair value €8.98, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.98). For Ernst Russ AG the two are €1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ernst Russ AG worth?
The market values Ernst Russ AG at about €352M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €10.45; our models calculate a fair value of €8.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERAG?
Our models span a range for Ernst Russ AG: cautious scenario €5.85, base €8.98, optimistic €13.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €10.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ERAG?
Ernst Russ AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ERAG?
The PEG ratio of Ernst Russ AG is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ernst Russ AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 27.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERAG from its 52-week high?
Ernst Russ AG trades at €10.45, at its 52-week high of €10.45 and 66% above the low of €6.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ernst Russ AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ernst Russ AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €10.45, calculated fair value €8.98 (−14%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERAG calculated?
We run Ernst Russ AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ernst Russ AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €10.45. Our model-based fair value is €8.98, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ernst Russ AG right now?
A fairly wide model range (€5.85 to €13.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Ernst Russ AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The market capitalisation of Ernst Russ AG is €352M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ernst Russ AG is 2.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Earnings per share at Ernst Russ AG are €1.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The dividend yield of Ernst Russ AG is 2.4% (payout 14.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The net margin of Ernst Russ AG is 46.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ernst Russ AG is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ernst Russ AG is 16.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
The operating margin of Ernst Russ AG is 30.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Revenue at Ernst Russ AG is growing −19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ernst Russ AG (ERAG)?
Earnings per share at Ernst Russ AG are growing −55.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) hold?
Ernst Russ AG holds more cash than debt, €112M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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