Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €261M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €28.54 to €22.50 (−21.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −6.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€14.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (€14.62 to €34.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.92 – €8.94 · fair‑value band €14.62 – €34.10 · the €7.50 price screens below the €22.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Ernst Russ AG (ERAG) currently trades at €7.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.50, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ernst Russ AG generated revenue of €125M at a net margin of 47.9%. Revenue declined 44.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €112M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €14.62 (bear case) to €34.10 (bull case); at €7.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at 200%, ERAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€38.66) versus Asset-Based (€4.94). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ernst Russ AG is a publicly owned investment manager. It invest in shipping, alternative investments, real estate, private equity and renewable energy. Within ship participation, the firm invests in part-owning ships and funds for ship participation and dormant investments with conversion options.
Full company description
Ernst Russ AG is a publicly owned investment manager. It invest in shipping, alternative investments, real estate, private equity and renewable energy. Within ship participation, the firm invests in part-owning ships and funds for ship participation and dormant investments with conversion options. In property investment funds, it seeks to invest in closed ended property investment funds. Within private equity the firm seeks to invest in private equity and venture capital funds. It also invests in real estate investments. Ernst Russ AG formerly known as HCI Capital AG. Ernst Russ AG was founded in 1985 and is based in Hamburg, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ernst Russ AG reported revenue of €158M in FY2025 versus €92.3M in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was €73.5M in FY2025, compounding +46.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.35 | ¥5.58 | +67% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.88 | ¥15.97 | +80% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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