EROAD Limited (ERD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · AU · Market cap A$159M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$1.56 to A$1.29 (−17.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 54% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.8400 to A$1.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4025 – A$5.35 · fair‑value band A$0.8400 – A$1.58 · the A$0.8350 price screens below the A$1.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
EROAD Limited (ERD) currently trades at A$0.8350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.29, implying the stock looks roughly 54.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, EROAD Limited generated revenue of A$195M at a net margin of -82.5%. Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -63.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$7.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.8400 (bear case) to A$1.58 (bull case); at A$0.8350, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 54%, ERD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$1.89) versus Multiples (A$0.4500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
EROAD Limited provides electronic on-board units and software as a service to the transport industry in New Zealand, the United States, and Australia. The company offers EROAD platform, which connects drivers, vehicles, assets, and operations to give businesses the real-time visibility they need to stay compliant and safe on the move.
Full company description
EROAD Limited provides electronic on-board units and software as a service to the transport industry in New Zealand, the United States, and Australia. The company offers EROAD platform, which connects drivers, vehicles, assets, and operations to give businesses the real-time visibility they need to stay compliant and safe on the move. It also provides electronic distance recorders, tracking devices, and mobile app that provide various enhanced electronic road user charges, safety features, and fleet tracking. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of sale or rental of hardware, installation, and training and support services. EROAD Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
EROAD Limited reported revenue of A$193M in FY2026 versus A$107M in FY2022, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$162M in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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