Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · MX · Market cap 28.9B MXN (≈ $1.7B)
What is Esentia Energy Development SA really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 403% above our fair value of 10.52 MXN.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from 0.5100 MXN to 10.52 MXN (+1,962.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.72 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (9 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range 46.03 MXN – 60.81 MXN · fair‑value band 7.89 MXN – 10.72 MXN · the 52.87 MXN price screens above the 10.52 MXN fair value. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) currently trades at 52.87 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.52 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 402.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 15.44 MXN per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the 52.87 MXN price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 2.21 MXN, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Esentia Energy Development SA generated revenue of 404M MXN at a net margin of 18.8%. Revenue declined 21.5% year over year. Net debt stands at 2.0B MXN. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 26.8. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 7.89 MXN (bear case) to 10.72 MXN (bull case); at 52.87 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −80%, ESENTIAII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2024 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1.94 MXN per share, which is 18.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (15.44 MXN) versus DCF Models (2.21 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Esentia Energy Systems engages in the transportation and commercialization of natural gas in Mexico. The company offers natural gas marketing, pipeline, and compression station operation and maintenance services.
Full company description
Esentia Energy Systems engages in the transportation and commercialization of natural gas in Mexico. The company offers natural gas marketing, pipeline, and compression station operation and maintenance services. It operates interconnected natural gas systems that deliver natural gas from Waha, Texas, across central Mexico to the principal industrial regions. The company is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Esentia Energy Development SA reported revenue of $382M in FY2024 versus $712M in FY2022, a compound −26.8%/yr. Reported net income was $19.4M in FY2024, compounding −36.7%/yr from FY2022.
ESENTIAII screens 403% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $50.72 | $35.83 | −29% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $74.41 | $11.73 | −84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $39.02 | $20.94 | −46% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$88.72 | C$24.53 | −72% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $32.02 | $10.92 | −66% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $21.31 | $11.45 | −46% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $59.25 | $36.42 | −39% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $95.69 | $58.62 | −39% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $286.91 | $79.61 | −72% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $280.80 | $199.99 | −29% |
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