Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Esentia Energy Development SA stock MXN 31.23, price MXN 49.99, upside -37.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range 46.03 MXN – 60.81 MXN · fair‑value band 29.21 MXN – 40.39 MXN · the 49.99 MXN price screens above the 31.23 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Esentia Energy Systems engages in the transportation and commercialization of natural gas in Mexico. The company offers natural gas marketing, pipeline, and compression station operation and maintenance services.
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It operates interconnected natural gas systems that deliver natural gas from Waha, Texas, across central Mexico to the principal industrial regions. The company is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) currently trades at 49.99 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.23 MXN, 37.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 37.44 MXN per share, and 3 of the 21 models we run sit above the 49.99 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.33 MXN, and 18 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 29.21 MXN (bear) to 40.39 MXN (bull), the price of 49.99 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Esentia Energy Development SA reported revenue of $429M in FY2025 versus $712M in FY2022, a compound −15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $78.2M in FY2025, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 26.7B MXN (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 5.91 · EPS (TTM) 1.54 MXN · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 157%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −38%, ESENTIAII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear29.21 MXNFair Value 31.23 MXNBull40.39 MXN
Price 49.99 MXN · Upside -37.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.23 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 48%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price.
Compare Esentia Energy Development SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)27.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)157.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−65.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)32.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.32× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow8.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 55
HEALTH (low debt)45· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 82
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Esentia Energy Development SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESENTIAII
Frequently asked questions
Is Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.23 MXN versus a price of 49.99 MXN, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESENTIAII?
Our model-based fair value for Esentia Energy Development SA is 31.23 MXN (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 49.99 MXN.
What is the quality score of ESENTIAII?
Esentia Energy Development SA has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 31.23 MXN (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29.21 MXN, optimistic scenario 40.39 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Esentia Energy Development SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 31.23 MXN, about −38% upside versus a price of 49.99 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 29.21 MXN, optimistic scenario 40.39 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Esentia Energy Development SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $334M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Esentia Energy Development SA pay a dividend?
Esentia Energy Development SA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Esentia Energy Development SA would have to grow free cash flow by +13.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -15.5 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESENTIAII use?
Our models discount Esentia Energy Development SA at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Esentia Energy Development SA that is +13.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Esentia Energy Development SA grew -15.5 % a year. The price currently implies +13.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Esentia Energy Development SA (+13.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.02 %: that much free cash flow Esentia Energy Development SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Esentia Energy Development SA it is 31.23 MXN per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 49.99 MXN. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Esentia Energy Development SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, ESENTIAII trades above its calculated fair value: price 49.99 MXN, fair value 31.23 MXN, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESENTIAII?
No. The price is what the market pays today (49.99 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (31.23 MXN). For Esentia Energy Development SA the two are 18.76 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Esentia Energy Development SA worth?
The market values Esentia Energy Development SA at about 26.7B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 49.99 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 31.23 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESENTIAII?
Our models span a range for Esentia Energy Development SA: cautious scenario 29.21 MXN, base 31.23 MXN, optimistic 40.39 MXN per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 49.99 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESENTIAII?
Esentia Energy Development SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 31.23 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Balance-sheet figures for Esentia Energy Development SA (as of Oct 1, 2026): debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESENTIAII from its 52-week high?
Esentia Energy Development SA trades at 49.99 MXN, about 18% below its 52-week high of 60.81 MXN and 9% above the low of 46.03 MXN (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 31.23 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Esentia Energy Development SA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Esentia Energy Development SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 49.99 MXN, calculated fair value 31.23 MXN (−38%), Quality Score 61/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESENTIAII calculated?
We run Esentia Energy Development SA through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 31.23 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Esentia Energy Development SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was 49.99 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 31.23 MXN, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Esentia Energy Development SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (40.39 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Esentia Energy Development SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The market capitalisation of Esentia Energy Development SA is 26.7B MXN (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Esentia Energy Development SA is 5.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Earnings per share at Esentia Energy Development SA are 1.54 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The dividend yield of Esentia Energy Development SA is 0.5% (payout 15.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The net margin of Esentia Energy Development SA is 18.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Esentia Energy Development SA is 6.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
The operating margin of Esentia Energy Development SA is 157% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Revenue at Esentia Energy Development SA is growing −65.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII)?
Earnings per share at Esentia Energy Development SA are growing +20.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Esentia Energy Development SA (ESENTIAII) carry?
The net debt of Esentia Energy Development SA is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 1, 2026