Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Exxaro Resources Ltd ZAR 405, price ZAR 177, upside +128.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R84.66 – R227.50 · fair‑value band R297.63 – R549.96 · the R177.33 price screens below the R404.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore.
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Exxaro Resources Limited engages in coal, pigment manufacturing, and renewable energy businesses in South Africa, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company mines and supplies thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and semi-soft coking coal products primarily in the Waterberg and Mpumalanga regions; manufactures ferrosilicon powder; and provides iron ore. Its energy solutions business consists of 229 megawatts of wind power generation assets. The company was formerly known as Kumba Resources Limited and changed its name to Exxaro Resources Limited in November 2006. Exxaro Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Centurion, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) currently trades at R177.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R404.68, implying the stock looks roughly 56.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R461.91 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the R177.33 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R160.17, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R297.63 (bear) to R549.96 (bull), the price of R177.33 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Exxaro Resources Ltd reported revenue of 41.8B ZAR in FY2025 versus 32.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 7.6B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 46.8B ZAC · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) R32.30 · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin 18.1% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 128%, EXX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R297.63Fair Value R404.68Bull R549.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.95 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.1% vs 14.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.8% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+128.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)18.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R404.68 versus a price of R177.33, about +128% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXX?
Our model-based fair value for Exxaro Resources Ltd is R404.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R177.33.
What is the quality score of EXX?
Exxaro Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R404.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R297.63, optimistic scenario R549.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exxaro Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R404.68, about +128% upside versus a price of R177.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R297.63, optimistic scenario R549.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Exxaro Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.8B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Exxaro Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Exxaro Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exxaro Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXX use?
Our models discount Exxaro Resources Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exxaro Resources Ltd that is -14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exxaro Resources Ltd grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exxaro Resources Ltd (-14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.75 %: that much free cash flow Exxaro Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exxaro Resources Ltd it is R404.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R177.33. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exxaro Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, EXX trades below its calculated fair value: price R177.33, fair value R404.68, a gap of about +128% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R177.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R404.68). For Exxaro Resources Ltd the two are R227.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exxaro Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Exxaro Resources Ltd at about 46.8B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R177.33; our models calculate a fair value of R404.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXX?
Our models span a range for Exxaro Resources Ltd: cautious scenario R297.63, base R404.68, optimistic R549.96 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R177.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXX?
Exxaro Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R404.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 50.3, P/B 0.8, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of EXX?
The PEG ratio of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 50.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exxaro Resources Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXX from its 52-week high?
Exxaro Resources Ltd trades at R177.33, about 22% below its 52-week high of R227.50 and 10% above the low of R161.46 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R404.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exxaro Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exxaro Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R177.33, calculated fair value R404.68 (+128%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXX calculated?
We run Exxaro Resources Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R404.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Exxaro Resources Ltd currently trades 128 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was R177.33. Our model-based fair value is R404.68, about +128% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exxaro Resources Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R297.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R297.63 to R549.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) come from?
Earnings per share at Exxaro Resources Ltd grew +19.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Exxaro Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The market capitalisation of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 46.8B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 0.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Earnings per share at Exxaro Resources Ltd are R32.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The dividend yield of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 9.6% (payout 52.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The net margin of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 18.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
The operating margin of Exxaro Resources Ltd is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Revenue at Exxaro Resources Ltd is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX)?
Earnings per share at Exxaro Resources Ltd are growing −12.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXX) hold?
Exxaro Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, 10.7B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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