National Vision Holdings (EYE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.3B
National Vision Holdings
EYE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $8.13 to $6.96 (−14.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +16.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.01 to $9.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.68 – $64.95 · fair‑value band $5.01 – $9.02 · the $22.55 price screens above the $6.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
National Vision Holdings (EYE) currently trades at $22.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.96, implying the stock looks roughly 69.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Vision Holdings generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at $656M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.01 (bear case) to $9.02 (bull case); at $22.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -69%, EYE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($8.98) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; and provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, Vista Optical military, and DiscountContacts.com.
Full company description
National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; and provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, Vista Optical military, and DiscountContacts.com. It also offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. In addition, the company sells prescription and non-prescription eyewear, contact lenses and related accessories to retail customers. The company serves a diverse customer base, including price-driven consumers, style leaders, wellness shoppers with vision benefits, managed care customers, outside prescription customers, and progressive lens wearers. The company was formerly known as National Vision, Inc. and changed its name to National Vision Holdings, Inc. in March 2014. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Vision Holdings reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $29.6M in FY2025, compounding −30.7%/yr from FY2021.
EYE screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Smart glasses are selling hot at National Vision, CEO ties it to the premium consumer
- National Vision (EYE) Director Michael Nicholson Purchases 50,000 Shares Of Common Stock, A Transaction Totaling $776,00
- Why Is National Vision (EYE) Up 3% Since Last Earnings Report?
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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